Chuck PaganoOct 22, 2026
Pagano broke down the Thursday night matchup and picked the Bears to beat the Patriots at home, citing Chicago's run game, time of possession and New England's offensive line and secondary injuries.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Chuck Pagano said
I like the Bears at home tonight, Pat.
- Where it was said
- The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
- The episode
- PMS 2.0 1651 - TNF Preview/Picks, Dalton Kincaid, Kirk Herbstreit, Coach Chuck Pagano, Kendrick Perkins, & AJ Hawk
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 22
- PlayedOct 22
- GradedOct 23
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Game Outcome PicksChicago Bears
Chicago Bears to beat New England
What happenedBears 30–24Patriots at Bears100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.67difficulty=0skillClosing line (Oct 22): Bears by 3 · favorite pick, Bears 58%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 24-30
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
The game in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
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