David Nir· Sep 24, 2026
Citing Daniel Donner's analysis of primary turnout shifts, he says Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by roughly 13 points in 2026 — a bigger margin than their 2018 wave — while acknowledging error bars of several points.
“And as a result, that leads to a prediction of Democrats winning the house popular vote by 13 points.”
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- House Popular Vote MarginsSep 24, 2026
“And as a result, that leads to a prediction of Democrats winning the house popular vote by 13 points. In other words, we expect based on this, Democrats to do 16 points better than in 2022... so that would be a margin of 13 points.”
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More house popular vote margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ben ShapiroHouse Popular Vote MarginsClose · 77Shapiro argued the midterm environment was breaking toward Republicans: he predicted the GOP would win the national generic/House vote by five to seven points, said Ted Budd and Brian Kemp would cruise in North Carolina and Georgia, expected strong Republican gubernatorial candidates in Arizona and Georgia to pull Blake Masters and Herschel Walker to victory, said Joe Lombardo would win Nevada's governorship, and made Lee Zeldin beating Kathy Hochul in New York his 'sleeper pick.'
- Lakshya JainHouse Popular Vote MarginsHit · 93In Split Ticket's final 2022 picks, forecasts Republicans winning 50 Senate seats to Democrats' 49 (with Georgia headed to a runoff), Republicans flipping the House with a 234-201 majority, and a national environment of roughly R+2.
- Harrison LavelleHouse Popular Vote MarginsHit · 93Co-author of Split Ticket's final 2022 picks, forecasting a 50-49 Republican Senate edge short of a majority, a Republican House flip at 234-201, and a national environment around R+2.
- G. Elliott MorrisHouse Popular Vote MarginsPendingMorris says both the polls and his model's non-poll "fundamentals" point to a strongly Democratic year, with his FiftyPlusOne House popular-vote forecast at roughly D+9. He also argues Henry Olsen's seat model understates Democrats by about 10 seats relative to Olsen's projected Democratic majority of 225–232.
- Daniel DonnerHouse Popular Vote MarginsPendingAnalyzing a long-run relationship between midterm primary turnout and the House popular vote, he concludes that 2026 primary turnout points to Democrats winning the national House vote by about 13 points, and says either that or the generic-ballot's smaller edge would be enough for Democrats to retake the House.
- Lakshya JainHouse Popular Vote MarginsPendingDespite his site's new nonpartisan polling average showing a razor-thin Democratic lead, he said he expects Republicans to win the national House popular vote and considers them clear favorites to take the House majority.