Ben Shapiro· Oct 26, 2022

Shapiro argued the midterm environment was breaking toward Republicans: he predicted the GOP would win the national generic/House vote by five to seven points, said Ted Budd and Brian Kemp would cruise in North Carolina and Georgia, expected strong Republican gubernatorial candidates in Arizona and Georgia to pull Blake Masters and Herschel Walker to victory, said Joe Lombardo would win Nevada's governorship, and made Lee Zeldin beating Kathy Hochul in New York his 'sleeper pick.'

“That is my sleeper pick is is that Kathy Hochul goes out to Lee Zeldin.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 1 house popular vote margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 7 have settled, averaging 53.9 out of 100, against 77.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“you would expect, by the way, in both Arizona and Georgia, the strength of the Republican at the top of the ticket on the governor's side is going to help drag those senatorial candidates across the finish line”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“In the senate, you have North Carolina. Bud is running away with that race.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nc
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ted Budd
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Budd
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“you would expect, by the way, in both Arizona and Georgia, the strength of the Republican at the top of the ticket on the governor's side is going to help drag those senatorial candidates across the finish line”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-az
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mark Kelly
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Blake Masters
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Races like Georgia. Brian Kemp is running away with that race against the vaunted and sainted Stacey Abrams.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“Again, governors' races in Nevada, it looks like Lombardo is gonna win that race. That's the Republican in Nevada.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Joe Lombardo
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Nevada gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joe Lombardo
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 26, 2022
“That is my sleeper pick is is that Kathy Hochul goes out to Lee Zeldin.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lee Zeldin
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
House Popular Vote MarginsOct 26, 2022
“That is with them assuming a generic ballot advantage for Republicans about three points. I don't think it's three points. I think it's gonna be five to seven points.”
Close · 77Scored 77.2a naive guess scored 42.5+35.39 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
skill:
35.39
topic:
elections
their party's votes:
54,227,992
what happened:
2.72
in their words:
five to seven points
read as:
as written
result from:
Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 8, 2022 (published February 28, 2023), "Recapitulation of Votes Cast for United States Representatives", Total row, PDF page 57 (printed page 55): https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2022/statistics2022.pdf; going in: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 3, 2020 (published February 26, 2021), "Recapitulation of Votes Cast for United States Representatives", Total row, PDF page 80 (printed page 78): https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2020/statistics2020.pdf
zero credit this far off:
10
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
margin in points
accuracy:
77.2
baseline:
42.5
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the other party's votes:
51,280,463
votes cast:
108,443,387
the naive guess:
the previous election's national House margin
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
5 to 7
the naive guess said:
−3.03
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.