Harrison Lavelle· Nov 8, 2022

Co-author of Split Ticket's final 2022 picks, forecasting a 50-49 Republican Senate edge short of a majority, a Republican House flip at 234-201, and a national environment around R+2.

“In the House, Republicans can expect to flip the chamber with a clearer 234 to 201 majority.”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 4 seat counts, 1 control of congres and 1 house popular vote margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 6 have settled, averaging 68.8 out of 100, against 52.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

50They said

49What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 49, just short of an outright majority”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 80+0 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
0
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
80
baseline:
80
they said:
50
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“In the House, Republicans can expect to flip the chamber with a clearer 234 to 201 majority.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 49”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 80-20 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
51
skill:
−20
topic:
elections
what happened:
51
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
80
they said:
49
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“In the House, Republicans can expect to flip the chamber with a clearer 234 to 201 majority.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 55-15 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−15
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
55
they said:
234
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
House Popular Vote MarginsNov 8, 2022
“So if we had to describe the national environment that best matches our ratings, we’d probably pick somewhere in the ballpark of R+2.”
Hit · 93Scored 92.8a naive guess scored 42.5+50.3 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
skill:
50.3
topic:
elections
their party's votes:
54,227,992
what happened:
2.72
in their words:
somewhere in the ballpark of R+2
result from:
Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 8, 2022 (published February 28, 2023), "Recapitulation of Votes Cast for United States Representatives", Total row, PDF page 57 (printed page 55): https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2022/statistics2022.pdf; going in: Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 3, 2020 (published February 26, 2021), "Recapitulation of Votes Cast for United States Representatives", Total row, PDF page 80 (printed page 78): https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2020/statistics2020.pdf
zero credit this far off:
10
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
margin in points
accuracy:
92.8
baseline:
42.5
they said:
2
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the other party's votes:
51,280,463
votes cast:
108,443,387
the naive guess:
the previous election's national House margin
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
−3.03
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“a clearer 234 to 201 majority”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 55-15 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Democratic
seats after:
213
skill:
−15
topic:
elections
what happened:
213
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
55
they said:
201
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.