Tom Pelissero#5 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 2, 2026
Pelissero expects the Raiders to draft Fernando Mendoza first overall, and says Kirk Cousins will be released March 11 while Tua Tagovailoa will be released before March 13 if Miami can't trade them.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Tom Pelissero said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromWell, they're drafting Fernando Mendoza, we think, at number one overall.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 1: Jeremiyah Love Draft Prediction, Lions Trade Montgomery, plus NFL Insider Tom Pelissero
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 2
- GradedAug 13–Nov 11
- 1Kirk Cousins to move“besides Kirk Cousins who we know based on his contract is gonna be released on March 11”
- 2Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“we we've kinda talked about the Raiders within this lens of, well, they're drafting Fernando Mendoza, we think, at number one overall”
- 3Tua Tagovailoa to move to Miami Dolphins“All signs are pointing to Tua, becoming available. If they can't trade him ... he would be released, I presume, prior to, March 13”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins to move1 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 12 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Tua Tagovailoa to move to Miami Dolphins3 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 3 calls · 2 hits · 1 waiting | 100 | 25 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 2 trade and signing calls and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Trade and Signing CallsKirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins to move
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kirk Cousins
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- ATL
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- reported:
- traded (from LV)
- settled by:
- a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Trade and Signing CallsTua TagovailoaMiami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa to move to Miami Dolphins
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 25
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick and land with the Raiders, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta.JP Acosta · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Acosta expects John Harbaugh's Giants to jump to roughly seven wins in year one, and forecast several offseason moves: Aaron Rodgers returning to Pittsburgh, Daniel Jones returning to the Colts, Kirk Cousins being released by Atlanta, and Brandon Aiyuk leaving San Francisco.Gregg Rosenthal · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Rosenthal gave their award ballot: Drake May atop their MVP list (though they expect Matthew Stafford to actually win), Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, Bijan Robinson for Offensive Player of the Year, Tetairoa McMillan for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Carson Schwesinger for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Mike Macdonald for Coach of the Year and Broncos O-line coach Zach Strief for Assistant Coach of the Year. They also expect Kirk Cousins to be cut by Atlanta.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Patricia Traina · Trade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Traina expects defensive tackle to be a top need for the Giants in next year's draft, and suggests the Giants could trade J.J. McCarthy next offseason — or keep both them and Jaxson Dart if the return isn't good enough. They also expect Dart to make a full recovery.Michael David Smith · Trade and Signing Calls · Keenan Allen · Hit 100
Smith suggests the Colts are likely to grant Josh Downs' trade request given their contract situation and their recent sell-off, and that they could also try to trade Keenan Allen.Noah Compton · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Compton expects the rebuilding Colts to keep dealing veterans before the November 10 deadline, naming Jonathan Taylor, Josh Downs and Grover Stewart as the likeliest remaining trade candidates, and believes Indianapolis should and likely will move on from quarterback Daniel Jones, while Shane Steichen keeps starting Jones in the meantime.Mike Fanelli · Trade and Signing Calls · Keenan Allen · Hit 100
Fanelli suggested Keenan Allen may be dealt away from Indianapolis, with Week 9 potentially their final appearance for the Colts.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.