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Tom Pelissero· Mar 2, 2026

Pelissero expects the Raiders to draft Fernando Mendoza first overall, and says Kirk Cousins will be released March 11 while Tua Tagovailoa will be released before March 13 if Miami can't trade him.

“Well, they're drafting Fernando Mendoza, we think, at number one overall.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 trade and signing calls and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
1They said
1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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Who this take is about

3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    “we we've kinda talked about the Raiders within this lens of, well, they're drafting Fernando Mendoza, we think, at number one overall”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2026
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

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  • Kirk Cousins to move

    “besides Kirk Cousins who we know based on his contract is gonna be released on March 11”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Tua Tagovailoa to move to Miami Dolphins

    “All signs are pointing to Tua, becoming available. If they can't trade him ... he would be released, I presume, prior to, March 13”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More trade and signing calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Discussed alongside these