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Charlie CampbellFeb 24, 2024

Based on a survey of team sources, Campbell reports four prospects — Will Anderson, Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Tyree Wilson — are viewed as certain top-10 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, with Peter Skoronski very likely to join them.

Published in writing · Walter FootballRead the original

5 of 5calls landed5 hits · all settled
99.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Charlie Campbell said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
In surveying team sources, there were four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Charlie Campbell, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Walter Football
The piece
NFL Hot Press: 2023 NFL Draft Top 10 Lacks Consensus – WalterFootball
The original
The copy as archived Feb 24, 2024 · the live page
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  1. SaidFeb 24, 2024
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026
  1. 1Tyree Wilson to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)“four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Texas Tech defensive end Tyree Wilson”
  2. 2C.J. Stroud to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)“four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud”
  3. 3Peter Skoronski to be picked “top-10 choice” (picks 1–10)“Another player who was viewed as very likely to end up as top-10 choice was Northwestern offensive tackle Peter Skoronski.”
  4. 4Will Anderson Jr. to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)“there were four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. They were: Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson”
  5. 5Bryce Young to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)“four players who are viewed as definitely going as the top-10 picks ... Alabama quarterback Bryce Young”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Tyree Wilson to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)1Mock Draft PicksWent 710050—
C.J. Stroud to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)2Mock Draft PicksWent 210050—
Peter Skoronski to be picked “top-10 choice” (picks 1–10)3Mock Draft PicksWent 1195.7650—
Will Anderson Jr. to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)4Mock Draft PicksWent 310050—
Bryce Young to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)5Mock Draft PicksWent 110050—
5 calls · 5 hits · all settled99.250

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

5 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 99.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
top-10 pick (picks 1–10)They said
7What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksTyree Wilson

    Tyree Wilson to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    What happenedWent 7
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Tyree Wilson
    season:
    2023
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    7
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    top-10 pick (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Mock Draft PicksC.J. Stroud

    C.J. Stroud to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    What happenedWent 2
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    C.J. Stroud
    season:
    2023
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    top-10 pick (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Mock Draft PicksPeter Skoronski

    Peter Skoronski to be picked “top-10 choice” (picks 1–10)

    What happenedWent 11
    95.76Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Peter Skoronski
    season:
    2023
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    95.76
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    11
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    95.76
    predicted pick:
    top-10 choice (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Mock Draft PicksWill Anderson Jr.

    Will Anderson Jr. to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    What happenedWent 3
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Will Anderson Jr.
    season:
    2023
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    top-10 pick (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Mock Draft PicksBryce Young

    Bryce Young to be picked “top-10 pick” (picks 1–10)

    What happenedWent 1
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2023
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Bryce Young
    season:
    2023
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    top-10 pick (picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    99.2naive 50

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