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John Breech#34 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 15, 2026

Breech picks the Seahawks to beat the Broncos 27-17 on Thursday night and the Buccaneers to upset the Steelers 20-17 in Week 6, and they reiterate that their preseason MVP pick was Jared Goff.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

0 of 2calls landed1 close call · 1 miss · 1 waiting
36.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
63.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#34John Breech’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What John Breech said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think their defense will stymie the Steelers and open the door for the Bucs to pull off the upset.
John Breech, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Pick Six: Seahawks-Broncos predictions for Thursday night, plus NFL Week 6 picks and QB rankings
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidOct 15
  2. PlayedOct 15–18
  3. GradedOct 16–19
  1. 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 — Steelers 17“John Breech — Buccaneers (+2.5) 20-17 over Steelers. From me: "The Buccaneers defense has quietly been playing good football all season..."”
  2. 2Seattle Seahawks 27 — Broncos 17“John Breech's pick: Seahawks 27-17 over Broncos”
  3. 3Jared Goff to win MVP“Garrett has Jared Goff in his top three, and Goff was my preseason pick to win MVP. Was it a crazy pick? Yes, but it doesn't look so crazy now.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 — Steelers 171Score PredictionsSteelers 26–1940.4833.7+11.66
Seattle Seahawks 27 — Broncos 172Score PredictionsBroncos 17–1433.3393.6−103.66
Jared Goff to win MVP3Award Picks————
3 calls · 1 close call · 1 miss · 1 waiting36.963.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 score predictions and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 36.9 out of 100, against 63.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 — Steelers 17

    What happenedSteelers 26–19called Buccaneers by 3 · lost by 7
    40.48Close · naive 33.7
    40.48this call33.7a naive guess6.78better than naive1.72difficulty+11.66skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Steelers by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 20–17 calls a Buccaneers win (by 3; the line gave the Buccaneers 44%) and fewer points (37). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    26-19
    skill:
    11.66
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    33.7
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    7
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0.15
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 27 — Broncos 17

    What happenedBroncos 17–14called Seahawks by 10 · lost by 3
    33.33Miss · naive 93.6
    33.33this call93.6a naive guess−60.27worse than naive1.72difficulty−103.66skill

    Closing line (Oct 15): Seahawks by 2.5, total 40.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 10) and more points (44).

    How this was scored
    score:
    14-17
    skill:
    −103.66
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    33.33
    baseline:
    93.6
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0.31
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Award PicksJared GoffDetroit Lions

    Jared Goff to win MVP

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    36.9naive 63.7

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