He argues Republicans will retain control of the Senate, pointing to a consistent pattern of GOP candidates outperforming their September polling in the decisive states by more than the current Democratic leads.

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

Nothing to score yet: this grades once the result is in.

1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

• Chamber ControlOct 2, 2026

  “Why I Don't Think Republicans Are Going to Lose the Senate”

  Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  Think this is wrong?

More chamber control

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

• Carl CannonChamber ControlHit · 100
  Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
• Sam WangChamber ControlMiss · 0
  Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.
• Henry OlsenChamber ControlHit · 100
  Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
• David PakmanChamber ControlHit · 100
  Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber.
• Sean TrendeChamber ControlHit · 100
  Trende said flatly that Harris will not win Iowa, and that the Senate outcome will range from 51 to 57 Republican seats, leaving Republicans in the majority.
• Lakshya JainChamber ControlHit · 100
  Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races.