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Pete Prisco#51 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 9, 2026

Predicts Seattle wins a physical division game 28-21, with the Seahawks defense making a late stand.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

40Close · out of 100
49ers 32–29What happenedcalled Seahawks by 7 · lost by 3
43.62A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
40.48This callout of 100
#51Pete Prisco’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Pete Prisco said

I think the Seattle defense will come up big late to win it
Our reading: Seattle Seahawks 28 — 49ers 21
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Seahawks vs. 49ers Week 5 Expert Picks, Prediction Roundup
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 9
  2. PlayedOct 11
  3. GradedOct 12

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 40.5 out of 100, against 43.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 28 — 49ers 21

    What happened49ers 32–29called Seahawks by 7 · lost by 3
    40.48Close · naive 43.62
    40.48this call43.62a naive guess−3.14worse than naive1.78difficulty−5.6skill

    Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 28–21 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 7) and more points (49).

    How this was scored
    score:
    32-29
    skill:
    −5.6
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    40.48
    baseline:
    43.62
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.32
    predicted margin:
    7
    Think this is wrong?

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