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Chris Long· Oct 23, 2026

Previewing Week 7, Chris Long takes Detroit over Green Bay and lands on a 27-17 Lions scoreline, picks Minnesota over a free-falling Colts team, and gives a Patriots-Bears score of 27-24.

“So I I just... I I am taking Detroit this week. I like Detroit.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Green Light with Chris Long (podcast) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 94.4 out of 100, against 97.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Score PredictionsDetroit LionsOct 23, 2026

    Detroit Lions 27 — Green Bay 17

    “I would go Detroit... It could be like it could be like Twenty seven seven. Twenty seven seventeen is exactly where I'm at.”

    Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 92.03-14.52 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    17-20
    skill:
    −14.52
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    83.33
    baseline:
    92.03
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.35
    predicted margin:
    10

    Closing line (Oct 25): Lions by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Lions win (by 10) and fewer points (44).

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  • Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsOct 23, 2026

    Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay

    “So I I just... I I am taking Detroit this week. I like Detroit. I'm not gonna make any, you know, bones about that.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    DET
    score:
    17-20
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DET
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Lions by 3.5 · favorite pick, Lions 63%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksMinnesota VikingsOct 23, 2026

    Minnesota Vikings to beat Indy

    “it all comes down to Kyler Murray and this Vikings offense taking care of business, and and I don't see it for Indy... I do not see how Indy moves the ball.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    MIN
    score:
    10-16
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    MIN
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    12

    Closing line (Oct 25): Vikings by 6.5 · favorite pick, Vikings about 3 in 4 (73%).

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  • Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsOct 23, 2026

    New England Patriots 27 — bears 24

    “Chris, patriots 27, bears 24. ... Oh, I feel good about this. I think the game's going over.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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