Seth Walder· Oct 10, 2026
Walder gave final score picks for all 14 Week 5 games, including a Jaguars blowout of the Eagles, upset calls on the Saints over the undefeated Vikings and the Jets over the Browns, plus the 49ers winning in Seattle and the Commanders beating the Giants.
“The Jaguars will win by two touchdowns.”
published in writing · read the original →
14 checkable claims — 14 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 14 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 14 have settled, averaging 64.9 out of 100, against 46.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Eagles at Jaguars 33 calls
- Giants at Commanders 17 calls
- Texans at Titans 25 calls
- Colts at Steelers 21 calls
- Browns at Jets 19 calls
- Bears at Packers 49 calls
- Vikings at Saints 27 calls
- Raiders at Patriots 28 calls
- Bengals at Dolphins 16 calls
- Broncos at Chargers 34 calls
- 49ers at Seahawks 60 calls
- Lions at Cardinals 24 calls
- Ravens at Falcons 21 calls
- Bills at Rams 41 calls
14 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsOct 10, 2026
Los Angeles Rams 34 — Bills 28
“Walder's pick: Rams 34, Bills 28”
Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 43.52-1.18 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 37-34
- skill:
- −1.18
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 42.86
- baseline:
- 43.52
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.28
- predicted margin:
- 6
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 34–28 calls a bigger Rams win (by 6) and more points (62).
- Score PredictionsDenver BroncosOct 10, 2026
Denver Broncos 27 — Chargers 18
“Walder's pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 18”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 36.48+100.36 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-17
- skill:
- 100.36
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 36.48
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 9
Closing line (Oct 11): Broncos by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 27–18 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 9) and more points (45).
- Score PredictionsDetroit LionsOct 10, 2026
Detroit Lions 30 — Cardinals 20
“Walder's pick: Lions 30, Cardinals 20”
Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 0+118.67 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 45-21
- skill:
- 118.67
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 66.67
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 10
Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 30–20 calls a bigger Lions win (by 10) and fewer points (50).
- Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ersOct 10, 2026
San Francisco 49ers 26 — Seahawks 23
“Walder's pick: 49ers 26, Seahawks 23”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 43.62+100.36 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 32-29
- skill:
- 100.36
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 43.62
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 3
Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 26–23 calls a 49ers win (by 3; the line gave the 49ers 40%) and more points (49).
- Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensOct 10, 2026
Baltimore Ravens 23 — Falcons 17
“Walder's pick: Ravens 23, Falcons 17”
Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 34.1+113.07 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 30-23
- skill:
- 113.07
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 97.62
- baseline:
- 34.1
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.32
- predicted margin:
- 6
Closing line (Oct 11): Falcons by 3.5, total 44.5 · this 23–17 calls a Ravens win (by 6; the line gave the Ravens 39%) and fewer points (40).
- Score PredictionsNew Orleans SaintsOct 10, 2026
New Orleans Saints 23 — Vikings 13
“Bold prediction: The Saints will win by double digits. ... Walder's pick: Saints 23, Vikings 13”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 28.28+38.66 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-13
- skill:
- 38.66
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 28.28
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 10
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 23–13 calls a Saints win (by 10; the line gave the Saints 44%) and fewer points (36).
- Score PredictionsChicago BearsOct 10, 2026
Chicago Bears 24 — Packers 23
“Walder's pick: Bears 24, Packers 23”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-89 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 7-31
- skill:
- −89
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 1
Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 24–23 calls a closer game (Bears by 1) and more points (47).
- Score PredictionsLas Vegas RaidersOct 10, 2026
Las Vegas Raiders 23 — Patriots 22
“Walder's pick: Raiders 23, Patriots 22”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-89 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 17-45
- skill:
- −89
- they picked:
- LV
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 1
Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5, total 45.5 · this 23–22 calls a Raiders win (by 1; the line gave the Raiders 38%) and fewer points (45).
- Score PredictionsCincinnati BengalsOct 10, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals 24 — Dolphins 14
“Walder's pick: Bengals 24, Dolphins 14”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 35.42+102.23 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 31-24
- skill:
- 102.23
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 35.42
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 10
Closing line (Oct 11): Bengals by 7, total 44.5 · this 24–14 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 10) and fewer points (38).
- Score PredictionsHouston TexansOct 10, 2026
Houston Texans 27 — Titans 20
“Walder's pick: Texans 27, Titans 20”
Close · 62Scored 61.9a naive guess scored 0+110.19 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 26-3
- skill:
- 110.19
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 61.9
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 7
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 27–20 calls a bigger Texans win (by 7) and more points (47).
- Score PredictionsWashington CommandersOct 10, 2026
Washington Commanders 24 — Giants 16
“Walder's pick: Commanders 24, Giants 16”
Close · 56Scored 55.95a naive guess scored 72.91-30.18 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 27-27
- skill:
- −30.18
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 55.95
- baseline:
- 72.91
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 8
Closing line (Oct 11): Commanders by 3.5, total 41.5 · this 24–16 calls a bigger Commanders win (by 8) and fewer points (40).
- Score PredictionsPittsburgh SteelersOct 10, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 — Colts 16
“Walder's pick: Steelers 23, Colts 16”
Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 73.52+25.94 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-34
- skill:
- 25.94
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 88.1
- baseline:
- 73.52
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 7
Closing line (Oct 11): Steelers by 3, total 41.5 · this 23–16 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 7) and fewer points (39).
- Score PredictionsNew York JetsOct 10, 2026
New York Jets 20 — Browns 17
“Walder's pick: Jets 20, Browns 17”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 90.19+8.99 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 12-17
- skill:
- 8.99
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 95.24
- baseline:
- 90.19
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.88
- predicted margin:
- 3
Closing line (Oct 11): Jets by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 20–17 calls a bigger Jets win (by 3) and fewer points (37).
- Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsOct 10, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars 31 — Eagles 14
“Walder's pick: Jaguars 31, Eagles 14”
Close · 64Scored 64.29a naive guess scored 96.54-57.41 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 17-19
- skill:
- −57.41
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 64.29
- baseline:
- 96.54
- difficulty:
- 1.78
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 14
- naive home margin:
- 0.55
- predicted margin:
- 17
Closing line (Oct 11): Jaguars by 7.5, total 41.5 · this 31–14 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 17) and more points (45).
What others said about the same people
- Jack MarkowskiRoster Spot Calls · Brandon SmithMiss · 0Markowski argues the Steelers should move on from Tyreek Hill given his injury and possible NFL discipline, and names promoting practice-squad receiver Brandon Smith to the 53-man roster as the most obvious way Pittsburgh addresses its receiver need.
- Brian PeacockTrade and Signing Calls · Jordan AddisonMiss · 0Peacock delivered a seven-round 49ers mock draft plus projected offseason moves: signing tight end Kyle Pitts, trading Mac Jones to Minnesota and acquiring Jordan Addison, and drafting speed at receiver, edge, safety, center, corner, running back and tackle, with 40-time projections for several prospects.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Bills in the Week 5 Monday night game, projecting a 28-24 final score as Los Angeles' Nacua-Adams-Williams trio proves too much for Buffalo's defense.
- Anthony "Tone Digz" DiGuilioGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night because of their defense.
- Darius ButlerGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Said Brian Flores could be Coach of the Year for what he is doing with the Vikings defense, and picked the Rams to beat the Bills on Monday night with Stafford outplaying Josh Allen.
- Pat McAfeeGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Picked the Rams to beat the Bills in the Monday night game at SoFi Stadium.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Dajani picked the Bills to beat the Rams 30-27 on Monday night.
- Gennaro FiliceScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 95Filice picked every Week 5 game with scores, backing Cincinnati in a closer-than-expected game at Miami, the Patriots in a low-scoring home win, Houston to finally get off the schneid in Tennessee, and upsets by the Saints, Jets, Packers and Bills.
- Bobby KownackScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 90Kownack picked all Week 5 games with scores, including the Browns winning at the Jets to reach 4-1, the Broncos handling the Chargers, and the Giants upsetting Washington.
- Pat FitzmauriceScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Fitzmaurice predicted a 34-31 Bills win over the Rams, suggested the Packers would again blow a lead to the Bears, and said Drake Maye is a high-end to mid-range QB1 going forward.
- Derek BrownScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Brown picked the Browns to beat the Jets and the Bears to beat the Packers, forecast a 31-28 Bills win over the Rams on Monday night, and made several Week 5 availability calls — doubting Tee Higgins, Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin while expecting Ja'Marr Chase to play.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Dajani lays out projected final scores for every Week 5 game he covers, including Jacksonville handling Philadelphia, Pittsburgh bouncing back at home against Indianapolis, and Cleveland winning outright in New York.