Gennaro Filice· Oct 10, 2026

Filice picked every Week 5 game with scores, backing Cincinnati in a closer-than-expected game at Miami, the Patriots in a low-scoring home win, Houston to finally get off the schneid in Tennessee, and upsets by the Saints, Jets, Packers and Bills.

“Cincinnati should still be able to handle winless Miami, but the contest could be closer than you expect.”

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15 checkable claims — 15 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

14 of 15 have settled so far, averaging 71 out of 100, against 46.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

15 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Score Predictions Buffalo BillsOct 10, 2026
Buffalo Bills 27 — Los Angeles Rams 26
“G. Filice Buffalo Bills 27-26”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 43.52+92.06 skill
How this was scored
score:
37-34
skill:
92.06
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
43.52
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.28
predicted margin:
1
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 27–26 calls a Bills win (by 1; the line gave the Bills 38%) and fewer points (53).
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Score Predictions Detroit LionsOct 10, 2026
Detroit Lions 42 — Arizona Cardinals 24
“G. Filice Detroit Lions 42-24”
Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 0+152.57 skill
How this was scored
score:
45-21
skill:
152.57
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
85.71
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
18
Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 42–24 calls a bigger Lions win (by 18) and more points (66).
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Score Predictions Atlanta FalconsOct 10, 2026
Atlanta Falcons 28 — Baltimore Ravens 17
“G. Filice Atlanta Falcons 28-17”
Close · 40Scored 40.48a naive guess scored 34.1+11.36 skill
How this was scored
score:
30-23
skill:
11.36
they picked:
ATL
season:
2026
accuracy:
40.48
baseline:
34.1
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
11
Closing line (Oct 11): Falcons by 3.5, total 44.5 · this 28–17 calls a bigger Falcons win (by 11) and more points (45).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Seattle SeahawksOct 10, 2026
Seattle Seahawks 27 — San Francisco 49ers 19
“G. Filice Seattle Seahawks 27-19”
Miss · 38Scored 38.1a naive guess scored 43.62-9.83 skill
How this was scored
score:
32-29
skill:
−9.83
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
38.1
baseline:
43.62
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
8
Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 27–19 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 8) and fewer points (46).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Denver BroncosOct 10, 2026
Denver Broncos 23 — Los Angeles Chargers 16
“G. Filice Denver Broncos 23-16”
Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 36.48+108.83 skill
How this was scored
score:
23-17
skill:
108.83
they picked:
DEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
97.62
baseline:
36.48
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
7
Closing line (Oct 11): Broncos by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 23–16 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 7) and fewer points (39).
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Score Predictions New York JetsOct 10, 2026
New York Jets 24 — Cleveland Browns 21
“G. Filice New York Jets 24-21”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 90.19+8.99 skill
How this was scored
score:
12-17
skill:
8.99
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
90.19
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 11): Jets by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 24–21 calls a bigger Jets win (by 3) and more points (45).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions New England PatriotsOct 10, 2026
New England Patriots 20 — Las Vegas Raiders 17
“G. Filice New England Patriots 20-17”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skill
How this was scored
score:
17-45
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
28
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5, total 45.5 · this 20–17 calls a closer game (Patriots by 3) and fewer points (37).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Cincinnati BengalsOct 10, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals 19 — Miami Dolphins 14
“G. Filice Cincinnati Bengals 19-14”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 35.42+106.47 skill
How this was scored
score:
31-24
skill:
106.47
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
35.42
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
5
Closing line (Oct 11): Bengals by 7, total 44.5 · this 19–14 calls a closer game (Bengals by 5) and fewer points (33).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Washington CommandersOct 10, 2026
Washington Commanders 26 — New York Giants 23
“G. Filice Washington Commanders 26-23”
Close · 68Scored 67.86a naive guess scored 72.91-8.99 skill
How this was scored
score:
27-27
skill:
−8.99
they picked:
WAS
season:
2026
accuracy:
67.86
baseline:
72.91
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
0
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 11): Commanders by 3.5, total 41.5 · this 26–23 calls a closer game (Commanders by 3) and more points (49).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Pittsburgh SteelersOct 10, 2026
Pittsburgh Steelers 22 — Indianapolis Colts 16
“G. Filice Pittsburgh Steelers 22-16”
Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 73.52+21.71 skill
How this was scored
score:
22-34
skill:
21.71
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
85.71
baseline:
73.52
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
12
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
6
Closing line (Oct 11): Steelers by 3, total 41.5 · this 22–16 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 6) and fewer points (38).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Houston TexansOct 10, 2026
Houston Texans 26 — Tennessee Titans 7
“G. Filice Houston Texans 26-7”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 0+161.05 skill
How this was scored
score:
26-3
skill:
161.05
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
23
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
19
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 26–7 calls a bigger Texans win (by 19) and fewer points (33).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Green Bay PackersOct 10, 2026
Green Bay Packers 25 — Chicago Bears 22
“G. Filice Green Bay Packers 25-22”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skill
How this was scored
score:
7-31
skill:
0
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 25–22 calls a Packers win (by 3; the line gave the Packers 47%) and more points (47).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions New Orleans SaintsOct 10, 2026
New Orleans Saints 21 — Minnesota Vikings 20
“G. Filice New Orleans Saints 21-20”
Miss · 29Scored 28.57a naive guess scored 28.28+0.52 skill
How this was scored
score:
23-13
skill:
0.52
they picked:
NO
season:
2026
accuracy:
28.57
baseline:
28.28
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
10
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
1
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 21–20 calls a Saints win (by 1; the line gave the Saints 44%) and fewer points (41).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Jacksonville JaguarsOct 10, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 — Philadelphia Eagles 13
“G. Filice Jacksonville Jaguars 26-13”
Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 96.54-40.45 skill
How this was scored
score:
17-19
skill:
−40.45
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
73.81
baseline:
96.54
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.55
predicted margin:
13
Closing line (Oct 11): Jaguars by 7.5, total 41.5 · this 26–13 calls a bigger Jaguars win (by 13) and fewer points (39).
Think this is wrong?
Score Predictions Dallas CowboysOct 10, 2026
Dallas Cowboys 35 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
“G. Filice Dallas Cowboys 35-17”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
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What others said about the same people

Jack MarkowskiRoster Spot Calls · Brandon SmithMiss · 0
Markowski argues the Steelers should move on from Tyreek Hill given his injury and possible NFL discipline, and names promoting practice-squad receiver Brandon Smith to the 53-man roster as the most obvious way Pittsburgh addresses its receiver need.
John GreenGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100
Green argues the Bills will beat the Rams on Monday Night Football at SoFi Stadium, citing Josh Allen's career success against Los Angeles, James Cook III's rushing against a middling Rams run defense, and Buffalo's edge in special teams field position.
Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100
Dajani picked the Bills to beat the Rams 30-27 on Monday night.
Bobby KownackScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 90
Kownack picked all Week 5 games with scores, including the Browns winning at the Jets to reach 4-1, the Broncos handling the Chargers, and the Giants upsetting Washington.
Blaine GrisakGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100
Grisak expects the Rams to lose to the Bills on Monday night, dropping to 2-3, before getting right against the Cardinals in Week 6. He also expects Myles Garrett back more realistically in Week 7 against the Raiders and Terrance Ferguson back in Week 8 against the Chargers, and thinks Aaron Donald and Colby Parkinson will be available against Buffalo.
Pat FitzmauriceScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100
Fitzmaurice predicted a 34-31 Bills win over the Rams, suggested the Packers would again blow a lead to the Bears, and said Drake Maye is a high-end to mid-range QB1 going forward.

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48
Dubin picks the Rams to beat the Bills in the Week 5 Monday night game, projecting a 28-24 final score as Los Angeles' Nacua-Adams-Williams trio proves too much for Buffalo's defense.
Ty SchmitScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48
Predicted a 38-34 Rams win over the Bills on Monday night, and said Micah Parsons will be back on the field for the Packers within the next week or two.
Tyler SullivanScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48
Sullivan picked the Rams to beat the Bills 28-24 on Monday night.
Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 45
Prisco picked the Rams to edge the Bills 34-33 on Monday night.
John BreechScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 40
Breech picked the Rams to beat the Bills 38-31 on Monday night, and after San Francisco's road win in Seattle suggested the NFC West would run through the 49ers.
Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 48
Dubin picked the Rams to beat the Bills 28-24 on Monday night.

Who this take is about

The games in this take

15 checkable claims in this take

What others said about the same people

More score predictions

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