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Zach RobertsAug 28, 2026

Previewing the Panthers' preseason finale, Roberts predicts which receivers make the 53-man roster (McMillan, Coker, Legette and Tremayne easily; Metchie possibly cut), expects AJ Dillon to make the roster, doubts both Aaron Hall and Elijah Garcia stick, and suggests Ja'Tavion Sanders could be traded.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

6 of 7calls landed6 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting
85.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls
100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
7 of 8Settled1 still waiting
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Zach Roberts said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
John Metchie may be the odd man out, but Ja'seem Reed needs a good showing after getting hurt, too.
Zach Roberts, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
7 Players to Watch in Panthers’ Preseason Finale vs. Texans
The original
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  1. SaidAug 28
  2. GradedSep 25
  1. 1Princely Umanmielen to be cut“He's in no danger of being cut, but the second-year edge could force the Panthers to make a tough decision”
  2. 2Jalen Coker to make the roster“We expect Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, and Brycen Tremayne to make it easily.”
  3. 3Brycen Tremayne to make the roster“We expect Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, and Brycen Tremayne to make it easily.”
  4. 4Xavier Legette to make the roster“We expect Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, and Brycen Tremayne to make it easily.”
  5. 5Tetairoa McMillan to make the roster“We expect Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, and Brycen Tremayne to make it easily.”
  6. 6AJ Dillon to make the roster“We expect AJ Dillon to make the roster”
  7. 7John Metchie III to make the roster“It is unlikely all three of these wideouts make the team. John Metchie may be the odd man out”
  8. 8Jimmy Horn Jr. — “seems the safest”“Jimmy Horn seems the safest, but things can change quickly.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Princely Umanmielen to be cut1Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 530100−200
Jalen Coker to make the roster2Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531001000
Brycen Tremayne to make the roster3Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531001000
Xavier Legette to make the roster4Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531001000
Tetairoa McMillan to make the roster5Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531001000
AJ Dillon to make the roster6Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531001000
John Metchie III to make the roster7Roster Spot Calls3 weeks on a 531001000
Jimmy Horn Jr. — “seems the safest”8Roster Spot Calls————
8 calls · 6 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting85.7100

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

8 checkable claims — 8 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

7 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 85.7 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Roster Spot CallsPrincely UmanmielenCarolina Panthers

    Princely Umanmielen to be cut

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CAR
    skill:
    −200
    player:
    Princely Umanmielen
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he does not make the 53
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Roster Spot CallsJalen CokerCarolina Panthers

    Jalen Coker to make the roster

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CAR
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Jalen Coker
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Roster Spot CallsBrycen TremayneCarolina Panthers

    Brycen Tremayne to make the roster

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CAR
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Brycen Tremayne
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Roster Spot CallsXavier LegetteCarolina Panthers

    Xavier Legette to make the roster

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CAR
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Xavier Legette
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Roster Spot CallsTetairoa McMillanCarolina Panthers

    Tetairoa McMillan to make the roster

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CAR
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Tetairoa McMillan
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Roster Spot CallsAJ DillonCarolina Panthers

    AJ Dillon to make the roster

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CAR
    skill:
    0
    player:
    AJ Dillon
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  7. 7Roster Spot CallsJohn Metchie IIICarolina Panthers

    John Metchie III to make the roster

    What happened3 weeks on a 53
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    club:
    CAR
    skill:
    0
    player:
    John Metchie III
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he makes the 53
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks on the53:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    18
    first week on the53:
    1
    weeks on the practice squad:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  8. 8Roster Spot CallsJimmy Horn Jr.Carolina Panthers

    Jimmy Horn Jr. — “seems the safest”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  9. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once

    85.7naive 100

Who this take is about

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