David Nir· Oct 29, 2024
In a guide to 2024 state legislative battlegrounds, Nir says Minnesota Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison is on track to win her congressional race easily, and that Democrat Josh Stein is favored to win the North Carolina governorship.
“Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is poised to easily win a seat in Congress, resigned from the legislature in July”
published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“a critical goal with Democrat Josh Stein favored to win the governorship”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-governor-nc
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- favored to win the governorship
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-governor
- who won:
- Josh Stein
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Josh Stein
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is poised to easily win a seat in Congress, resigned from the legislature in July”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-mn-03
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Kelly Morrison
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Minnesota's district 3
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kelly Morrison
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.