Ryan TracyMar 21, 2026
Tracy ranks Caleb McDonald as the top defensive tackle in the draft class, says Grayson Halton is the best pass rusher in the class by production, and projects a series of DT prospects to specific draft ranges — Halton around pick 74, Rayshawn Benny late Day 3/round 3-4, Kenneth Proctor Day 3, Zane Durant in the fifth round, and Skyler Gil Howard falling to the late rounds of Day 3. They also doubt Christian Miller lasts to pick 40 and expects the Chiefs to end up with fewer than their current nine picks.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Chiefs (podcast)Hear the original
What Ryan Tracy said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think Caleb McDonald is the best defensive tackle in this class.
- Where it was said
- Locked On Chiefs (podcast)
- The episode
- Chiefs SHOCK League With Bold Moves! Draft Projections Are Useless
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidMar 21
- GradedAug 14–18
- 1Zane Durant to be picked “a fourth, fifth round, maybe maybe slips into sixth, but I think fifth is about the right spot” (picks 101–216)“He also will be, I think, a a fourth, fifth round, maybe maybe slips into sixth, but I think fifth is about the right spot”
- 2Gracen Halton to be picked at number 74“Halton would be around the 74 ranges, my guess. Could fall to one zero nine, but not certain of that.”
- 3Kayden McDonald to be 1st defensive tackle off the board“I think Caleb McDonald is the best defensive tackle in this class.”
- 4Rayshaun Benny to be picked “end of the day three or top, round three or of round four, day three”“One guy that stands out to me that is likely to be an end of the day three or top, round three or of round four, day three, is Rayshawn Benny from Michigan.”
- 5Skyler Gill-Howard to be picked “squarely falling all the way down to the late rounds on day three”“now it looks like he is squarely falling all the way down to the late rounds on day three, and I think that's a great value pickup”
- 6Kaleb Proctor to be picked “a day three guy”“I do think he's gonna be a day three guy that they should have their eyes on as well.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zane Durant to be picked “a fourth, fifth round, maybe maybe slips into sixth, but I think fifth is about the right spot” (picks 101–216)1 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 181 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Gracen Halton to be picked at number 742 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 107 | 23.94 | 50 | — | |
| Kayden McDonald to be 1st defensive tackle off the board3 | Position Order Calls | — | 50 | 19.25 | +30.75 | |
| Rayshaun Benny to be picked “end of the day three or top, round three or of round four, day three”4 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Skyler Gill-Howard to be picked “squarely falling all the way down to the late rounds on day three”5 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Kaleb Proctor to be picked “a day three guy”6 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 6 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 miss · 3 waiting | 58 | 39.8 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 58 out of 100, against 39.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Zane Durant to be picked “a fourth, fifth round, maybe maybe slips into sixth, but I think fifth is about the right spot” (picks 101–216)
What happenedWent 181100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Zane Durant
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 181
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a fourth, fifth round, maybe maybe slips into sixth, but I think fifth is about the right spot (picks 101–216)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Mock Draft PicksGracen Halton
Gracen Halton to be picked at number 74
What happenedWent 107mocked at 7423.94Miss · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Gracen Halton
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 23.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 107
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 23.94
- predicted pick:
- 74
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
3Position Order CallsKayden McDonald
Kayden McDonald to be 1st defensive tackle off the board
VerdictClose50Close · naive 19.2550this call−19.25a naive guess=30.75better than naive×1difficulty=+30.75skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 24 at random averages 19.25
- skill:
- 30.75
- player:
- Kayden McDonald
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 19.25
- position:
- defensive tackle
- class size:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 3
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
4Mock Draft PicksRayshaun Benny
Rayshaun Benny to be picked “end of the day three or top, round three or of round four, day three”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Mock Draft PicksSkyler Gill-Howard
Skyler Gill-Howard to be picked “squarely falling all the way down to the late rounds on day three”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Mock Draft PicksKaleb Proctor
Kaleb Proctor to be picked “a day three guy”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
58naive 39.8
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Keith Sanchez · Mock Draft Picks · Kayden McDonald · Close 65
In their final 2026 NFL mock draft, Sanchez projects the full first round plus several second-round picks, starting with Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Raiders.Jaime Eisner · Mock Draft Picks · Kaleb Proctor · Miss 0
A seven-round Miami Dolphins mock draft projecting Kenyon Sadiq at No. 11, Keldric Faulk at No. 30, Emmanuel Pregnon at No. 43, and additional picks through the seventh round, with Pregnon projected as an immediate starter and Kaleb Proctor as a practice-squad-level player.Scott Bogman · Mock Draft Picks · Kayden McDonald · Close 68
Bogman's mock picks: Arvel Reese to Arizona at 3, Francis Mauigoa to Cleveland at 6, Keldric Faulk to Kansas City at 9, Sonny Styles to Dallas at 12, Cashius Howell to Tampa Bay at 15, Avieon Terrell to Minnesota at 18, Makai Lemon to Pittsburgh at 21, KC Concepcion to Cleveland at 24, Kayden McDonald to San Francisco at 27 and Anthony Hill to Denver at 30.Scott Bogman · Mock Draft Picks · Kayden McDonald · Close 48
They gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.