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TJ Jefferson#66 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 28, 2025

Jefferson picked the NFC West as Rams first, 49ers second, Cardinals third, Seahawks fourth, and named seven Super Bowl contenders including the Rams and 49ers.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 2calls landed1 close call · 1 miss · all settled
20Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
45A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
#66TJ Jefferson’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What TJ Jefferson said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Just in my gut right now, Rams, Niners, Cardinals, Seahawks.
TJ Jefferson, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
NFC West Predictions
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidAug 28, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13–17, 2026
  1. 1Los Angeles Rams to win the division“I got the Rams, and that's based solely upon Matt Stafford's back being healthy... Rams, Niners, Cardinals, Seahawks.”
  2. 2Power Rankings“Just in my gut right now, Rams, Niners, Cardinals, Seahawks.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Los Angeles Rams to win the division1Division Winners—000
“Just in my gut right now, Rams, Niners, Cardinals, Seahawks.”2Power Rankings—4090−100
2 calls · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled2045

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 20 out of 100, against 45 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Division WinnersLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LAR
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Power Rankings

    “Just in my gut right now, Rams, Niners, Cardinals, Seahawks.”

    VerdictClose
    40Close · naive 90
    40this call90a naive guess−50worse than naive2difficulty−100skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −100
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    40
    baseline:
    90
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    20naive 45

Others on the same people

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