Connor Rogers#32 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 16, 2026
Rogers made straight-up Week 6 winners, backing Jacksonville, Baltimore, New England, Chicago, Carolina, the Giants, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the Rams and Green Bay.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)Hear the original
What Connor Rogers said
I'm going with New England.
- Where it was said
- Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 6 Picks; Did Broncos win or did Seahawks lose?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 16
- PlayedOct 18
- GradedOct 18–19
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Outcome Picks | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| All | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
9 checkable claims — 9 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 9 have settled, averaging 44.4 out of 100, against 22.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game Outcome Picks4 hits · 5 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Bucks
“I'm gonna take the Steelers to win in cover in this one. I don't think the Bucks are very good.”
Steelers 26–19Steelers at Buccaneers100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.72 difficulty = +172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Steelers by 2.5 · favorite pick, Steelers 56%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 26-19
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- PIT
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Cardinals 18–16Cardinals at Rams0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Rams by 12.5 · favorite pick, Rams about 5 in 6 (84%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 18-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Texans
“I like Jacksonville just as the better team... but I am gonna take Jacksonville.”
Texans 34–31Texans at Jaguars0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Jaguars by 2.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars 56%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 34-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
New England Patriots to beat Jets
“I'm going with New England... I just think the Patriots offense will have the right game plan in this that they win by more than the touchdown.”
Patriots 26–19Jets at Patriots100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Patriots by 7.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 19-26
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NE
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
New York Giants to beat Saints
“I'd I'd picking the Giants to cover, which kinda means I'm picking them to win because it's only a point and a half in this one.”
Saints 34–27Saints at Giants0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): a toss-up, about even (Saints 50%, Giants 50%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NO
- score:
- 34-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Chicago Bears to beat Falcons
“I'm gonna take the Bears, but... To cover and win, but not with a high confidence level.”
Bears 31–23Bears at Falcons100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.72 difficulty = +172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Bears by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bears 52%, Falcons 48%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 31-23
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Baltimore Ravens to beat Browns
“So I think the Ravens win. I do think the Browns cover the three and a half line.”
Browns 13–10Ravens at Browns0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 1.72 difficulty = −172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 60%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CLE
- score:
- 10-13
- skill:
- −172
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CLE
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Indianapolis Colts to beat Tennessee
“And I think the Colts win just like you, Chris.”
Titans 26–20Titans at Colts0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.72 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Colts by 6.5 · favorite pick, Colts 72%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- TEN
- score:
- 26-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Carolina Panthers to beat Eagles
“Week six, we had two disagreements straight up. Yeah. I took the bears and the Panthers.”
Panthers 25–14Panthers at Eagles100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.72 difficulty = +172 skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Panthers by 3 · favorite pick, Panthers 59%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CAR
- score:
- 25-14
- skill:
- 172
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on each- Texans at JaguarsTexans 34Jaguars 3133 calls →
- Jets at PatriotsPatriots 26Jets 1924 calls →
- Titans at ColtsTitans 26Colts 2042 calls →
- Ravens at BrownsBrowns 13Ravens 1021 calls →
- Panthers at EaglesPanthers 25Eagles 1423 calls →
- Steelers at BuccaneersSteelers 26Buccaneers 1920 calls →
- Saints at GiantsSaints 34Giants 2722 calls →
- Bears at FalconsBears 31Falcons 2325 calls →
- Cardinals at RamsCardinals 18Rams 1633 calls →
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Brooke Cersosimo · Game Outcome Picks · Buffalo Bills · Hit 100
Picks the Bills over the Vikings.Gennaro Filice · Game Outcome Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Picks the Vikings to beat the Bills.Moe Moton · Game Outcome Picks · Buffalo Bills · Hit 100
Picks the Bills to win.Pamela Maldonado · Game Outcome Picks · Buffalo Bills · Hit 100
Picks the Bills to win.