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Alain Poupart#33 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 18, 2026

Poupart, while arguing the Dolphins have upset history as big underdogs, ultimately leans toward San Francisco beating Miami in their Week 2 matchup, saying it's too much to predict a Dolphins upset.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
49ers 35–13What happenedDolphins at 49ers
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#33Alain Poupart’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Alain Poupart said

Logic still says and will say until game time that the Dolphins aren't likely to win, but there's a reason they play the games.
Our reading: San Francisco 49ers to beat Miami Dolphins
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
What Recent History Tells Us About the Chances of the Dolphins Pulling Off a Big Week 2 Upset
The original
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  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers to beat Miami Dolphins

    What happened49ers 35–13Dolphins at 49ers
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): 49ers by 12.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 6 in 7 (86%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    13-35
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SF
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

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