Sam Monson· Oct 22, 2026
Monson picked the Bears, Saints, Bengals, Vikings, Falcons, Texans, Browns, Jets, Panthers, Broncos, Lions, Raiders and Chiefs in Week 7, and said Minnesota would still post a good record and make the playoffs even if its offense stays stagnant.
“I'm gonna go with the bears. It's not a division game, so Ben Johnson will be amazing.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Check the Mic (podcast) · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 9 game outcome picks and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
9 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 44.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Patriots at Bears 23 calls
- Steelers at Saints 24 calls
- Browns at Titans 12 calls
- Dolphins at Jets 62 calls
- Bengals at Ravens 15 calls
- 49ers at Falcons 26 calls
- Broncos at Cardinals 13 calls
- Packers at Lions 21 calls
- Chiefs at Seahawks 23 calls
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsOct 22, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Seattle Seahawks
“Chiefs favored by two and a half. We're gonna go with the Chiefs.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-167 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 3-20
- skill:
- −167
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 25): Seahawks by 3 · underdog pick, Chiefs 41%.
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsOct 22, 2026
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers
“Detroit winning cover”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DET
- score:
- 17-20
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 25): Lions by 3.5 · favorite pick, Lions 63%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
- Game Outcome PicksDenver BroncosOct 22, 2026
Denver Broncos to beat Arizona Cardinals
“I'm going with Denver hoping the Boneix won't screw me.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+167 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 30-16
- skill:
- 167
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ARI
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 25): Broncos by 4.5 · favorite pick, Broncos about 2 in 3 (67%).
- Game Outcome PicksAtlanta FalconsOct 22, 2026
Atlanta Falcons to beat San Francisco 49ers
“I am going with the Atlanta Falcons to win the, the Fantasy Points game of the week?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- ATL
- score:
- 20-29
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- ATL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 25): 49ers by 2.5 · underdog pick, Falcons 42%.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsOct 22, 2026
New York Jets to beat Miami Dolphins
“this may be the first step in that road. Like, let's just beat up on Miami... Who you picking? Just by four and a half. The Jets.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- MIA
- score:
- 28-25
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 25): Jets by 3.5 · favorite pick, Jets about 2 in 3 (66%).
- Game Outcome PicksNew Orleans SaintsOct 22, 2026
New Orleans Saints to beat Pittsburgh Steelers
“I'm going with the Saints because as I've said before, just can't can't quit them no matter how bad the record is.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 16-10
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NO
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NO
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 25): Steelers by 3 · underdog pick, Saints 41%.
- Game Outcome PicksCincinnati BengalsOct 22, 2026
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Baltimore Ravens
“Bengals favored by one and a half over under 48 and a half. I'm gonna go with the Bengals.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+167 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 35-13
- skill:
- 167
- they picked:
- CIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 25): Bengals by 3 · favorite pick, Bengals 59%.
- Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsOct 22, 2026
Cleveland Browns to beat Tennessee Titans
“We got the Browns by one and a half. We're running 37 and a half. I'm going Browns.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+167 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CLE
- score:
- 27-24
- skill:
- 167
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 25): Browns by 1.5 · a toss-up, Browns 54%, Titans 46%.
- Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsOct 22, 2026
Chicago Bears to beat New England Patriots
“I'm gonna go with the bears. It's not a division game, so Ben Johnson will be amazing.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CHI
- score:
- 24-30
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- CHI
- difficulty:
- 1.67
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 12
Closing line (Oct 22): Bears by 3 · favorite pick, Bears 58%.
- Playoff PicksMinnesota VikingsOct 22, 2026
Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs
“But when they face the best teams, like, I think they would still have a good record and make the playoffs and all all that stuff.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Caleb WilliamsMiss · 0Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix.
- Parker HurleyTrade and Signing Calls · Jessie BatesMiss · 0Hurley argues a Jessie Bates trade to San Francisco is unrealistic because Atlanta remains in the weak NFC South race and likely won't sell, and he expects 49ers safety Ji'Ayir Brown to depart in free agency after this season.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Chicago BearsHit · 100Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.
- Bryan DeArdoScore Predictions · Chicago BearsHit · 98DeArdo picks the Bears to beat the Buccaneers on Sunday night in a defensive game, predicting a 20-16 final score.
- Christian BooherRoster Spot Calls · Anthony LucasMiss · 0Booher previews the Lions' Week 9 trip to Miami, predicting Derrick Barnes takes over as the green-dot linebacker in Jack Campbell's absence, Juice Scruggs starts at center, and boldly forecasting Detroit's first defensive touchdown of the season on an Aidan Hutchinson strip-sack recovered and returned by Barnes.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsHit · 100Parkins named the seven AFC teams he believes are already set as the playoff field, expects Chicago, Buffalo and Kansas City to win this week, took Green Bay over New England and Atlanta over Cincinnati outright, and kept Bills–Bears as his Super Bowl matchup with the Giants still winning the NFC East.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Bill HuberGame Outcome Picks · Green Bay PackersHit · 100Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite his rib injury. He also sketches the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard.
- Jeremy BrenerGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback.
- Albert BreerGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.
- Tyler SullivanGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.
- Dave RichardGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.
- John PluymGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.