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Alain Poupart#33 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 18, 2026

Answering a mailbag ahead of the Dolphins-49ers game, Poupart says logic points to Miami losing because San Francisco is the far better team, while allowing that upsets happen. They also lay out what would have to happen for a Dolphins win (Achane running wild or the defense intercepting Brock Purdy).

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
49ers 35–13What happenedDolphins at 49ers
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#33Alain Poupart’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Alain Poupart said

All logic suggests the Dolphins are going to lose because the 49ers simply are a much better team, but upsets happen all the time in the NFL and at some point it’s Miami that’s going to produce one of those.
Our reading: San Francisco 49ers to beat Dolphins
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Dolphins Friday Mailbag: How Good Can the O-Line Become?
The original
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  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers to beat Dolphins

    What happened49ers 35–13Dolphins at 49ers
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): 49ers by 12.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 6 in 7 (86%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    13-35
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SF
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

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