Derek Brown#12 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 9, 2025
Derek Brown ("Deebro") names three busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy drafts: Kyren Williams at an RB1 price, Chuba Hubbard as a top-20 RB, and Xavier Worthy as their ultimate bust, arguing Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 receiver in Kansas City.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Derek Brown said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromExavi your worthy, man, it's got to be Exavier worthy.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast - Derek Brown’s Biggest Busts To Avoid in 2025 (Ep. 1644)
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidAug 9, 2025
- GradedAug 5–19, 2026
- 1Chuba Hubbard to fall short of his draft cost (top twenty RB)“Chuba Hubbard is going to be one of your biggest bus as far as adyp gos top twenty RB in there... So I think we cannot be expecting last year to repat heat”
- 2Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (EASYR Wide Receiver twenty or ADP Wide Receiver twenty six)“Exavi your worthy, man, it's got to be Exavier worthy. He is going as a top twenty four wide receiver in a lot of different spots right on EASYR Wide Receiver twenty or ADP Wide Receiver twenty six. I can't draft him at that spot.”
- 3Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (RB twelve, twenty sixth overall in the ECR)“This is Kieren Williams. He's RB twelve, twenty sixth overall in the ECR. And I can't rank Kien Williams that high... This is not a player that I want to spend an RB one or at least pay an RB one price tag for in Fantasy for twenty twenty five.”
- 4Rashee Rice to be 1st on the depth chart“because Rashid Rice is the number one, the clear number one in this offense and it's not Worthy”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard to fall short of his draft cost (top twenty RB)1 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (EASYR Wide Receiver twenty or ADP Wide Receiver twenty six)2 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (RB twelve, twenty sixth overall in the ECR)3 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Rashee Rice to be 1st on the depth chart4 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 83.33 | +33.33 | |
| 4 calls · 4 hits · all settled | 100 | 20.8 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive4 checkable claims — 3 fantasy bust calls and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 20.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Fantasy Bust CallsChuba HubbardCarolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard to fall short of his draft cost (top twenty RB)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- top twenty RB
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Chuba Hubbard
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB42
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
2Fantasy Bust CallsXavier WorthyKansas City Chiefs
Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (EASYR Wide Receiver twenty or ADP Wide Receiver twenty six)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- EASYR Wide Receiver twenty or ADP Wide Receiver twenty six
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
3Fantasy Bust CallsKyren WilliamsLos Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (RB twelve, twenty sixth overall in the ECR)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- RB twelve, twenty sixth overall in the ECR
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kyren Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
4Depth Chart CallsRashee RiceKansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by receptions100Hit · naive 83.33100this call−83.33a naive guess=16.67better than naive×2difficulty=+33.33skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- KC
- skill:
- 33.33
- player:
- Rashee Rice
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 20.8
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Welsh · Fantasy Bust Calls · Austin Ekeler · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Pat Fitzmaurice · Fantasy Bust Calls · Breece Hall · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.Joe Pisapia · Fantasy Bust Calls · Christian McCaffrey · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Sean Kerner · Fantasy Bust Calls · Travis Hunter · Miss 0
Kerner's top move is Travis Hunter to Jacksonville, though they call Hunter's WR30 price a bit rich given usage uncertainty. They are all-in on Ashton Jeanty as a workhorse with top-five rookie upside, likes Ben Johnson's arrival for Caleb Williams and rookie TE Colston Loveland, expects DeVonta Adams to boost Matthew Stafford's touchdown total over 22.5, and is heavily drafting Jayden Higgins as Houston's No. 2 receiver.Jake Ciely · Fantasy Bust Calls · Romeo Doubs · Miss 0
Seeley mocks anyone going back to Kyle Pitts, treating them as a tight end who will burn drafters again, while touting Trey Benson as a discounted value who remains the clear backup to James Connor. They also call out late-round picks like Justice Hill, Rashad Bateman and Romeo Doubs as upside-less bench wastes.