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Rachel NicholsJan 16, 2026

Nichols picks the Bills to win in Denver, arguing you side with the most talented player on the field in a game that feels like a wash.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
−100Skillafter difficulty

What Rachel Nichols said

Yeah, I'm going Bills in this one.
Our reading: Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
Where it was said
The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode
THE HERD - Hour 1 - Sam Darnold is under pressure, Super Bowl or bust for Josh Allen, thoughts on the Packers-Bears rivalry
The original
Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJan 16
  2. GradedAug 7

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
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