Mike FanelliAug 29, 2026
Fanelli names eight fantasy football busts to avoid drafting in 2026, arguing each will not return value at their current average draft position: Christian McCaffrey, De'Von Achane, Justin Jefferson, Bucky Irving, Jameson Williams, Harold Fannin Jr., Courtland Sutton and Jake Ferguson.
Published in writing · FantasyProsRead the original
What Mike Fanelli said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromTherefore, let’s look at eight fantasy football busts to avoid drafting.
- Where it was published
- FantasyPros
- The piece
- 8 Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid (2026)
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- 1Harold Fannin Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 70.2 (TE5))“Fannin should get drafted closer to the TE10 than his TE5 ADP.”
- 2Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 11.8 (WR6))“fantasy players should avoid drafting Jefferson as a top-six wide receiver and a top-12 pick”
- 3Jake Ferguson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 112.4 (TE12))“Jake Ferguson shouldn’t get drafted in standard-size leagues, as CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens limit his upside.”
- 4Jameson Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 57.2 (WR26))“Fantasy players should avoid drafting the former Alabama star at his sixth-round ADP (WR26) and target a pass-catcher with less volatility instead.”
- 5De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 10.8 (RB6))“I won’t draft him as a mid-range RB1 and would like to avoid picking Achane altogether with Malik Willis under center.”
- 6Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 45.8 (RB20))“Bucky Irving (RB – TB) | ADP: 45.8 (RB20) ... The Buccaneers signed Kenneth Gainwell to a significant contract in free agency and called the veteran a co-starter during training camp, signaling their lack of trust in Irving as a featured running back.”
- 7Courtland Sutton to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 76.6 (WR33))“the trade crushed Courtland Sutton’s fantasy value ... Sutton has seen a decline in targets and receiving touchdowns in back-to-back years, a trend I expect to continue.”
- 8Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 5.8 (RB3))“Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) | ADP: 5.8 (RB3) ... the superstar turned 30 this offseason and is a ticking time bomb because of his age and injury history.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 70.2 (TE5))1 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 11.8 (WR6))2 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Jake Ferguson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 112.4 (TE12))3 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Jameson Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 57.2 (WR26))4 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 10.8 (RB6))5 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 45.8 (RB20))6 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Courtland Sutton to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 76.6 (WR33))7 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 5.8 (RB3))8 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 8 calls · 8 waiting | — | — | ||||
How each call scored
8 checkable claims — 8 fantasy bust calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Fantasy Bust CallsHarold Fannin Jr.Cleveland Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 70.2 (TE5))
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
2Fantasy Bust CallsJustin JeffersonMinnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 11.8 (WR6))
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Fantasy Bust CallsJake FergusonDallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 112.4 (TE12))
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Fantasy Bust CallsJameson WilliamsDetroit Lions
Jameson Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 57.2 (WR26))
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Fantasy Bust CallsDe'Von AchaneMiami Dolphins
De'Von Achane to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 10.8 (RB6))
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Fantasy Bust CallsBucky IrvingTampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 45.8 (RB20))
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
7Fantasy Bust CallsCourtland SuttonDenver Broncos
Courtland Sutton to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 76.6 (WR33))
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
8Fantasy Bust CallsChristian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (ADP: 5.8 (RB3))
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns, Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings, Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys, Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions, De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins, Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos, Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Fantasy Bust Calls · Zay Flowers · Miss 0
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Fantasy Bust Calls · Austin Ekeler · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Joe Pisapia · Fantasy Bust Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Pat Fitzmaurice · Fantasy Bust Calls · Breece Hall · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.