Tom Pelissero· Jan 31, 2025
Pelissero expects Kellen Moore to be hired as the Saints' next head coach right after the Super Bowl, doubts any team has a quarterback as its No. 1 overall player in the draft while still expecting Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders to be first-round picks, anticipates Mike McCarthy will get head-coaching opportunities in 2026, and sees Las Vegas as a plausible landing spot for Russell Wilson.
“I think it's fair to say all indications are right now that Kellen Moore is the top candidate for that job.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks and 2 trade and signing calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 50.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksCam WardJan 31, 2025
Cam Ward to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)
“Cam Ward and Shadoor Sanders are both probably gonna be first round picks based on everyone that I've spoken to here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round picks (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersJan 31, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)
“Cam Ward and Shadoor Sanders are both probably gonna be first round picks based on everyone that I've spoken to here.”
Miss · 1Scored 0.78a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.78
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.78
- predicted pick:
- first round picks (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Trade and Signing CallsCam WardJan 31, 2025
Cam Ward to move
“Cam Ward and Shadoor Sanders are both probably gonna be first round picks based on everyone that I've spoken to here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kellen Moore to move to New Orleans Saints
“So you have to connect the dots a tiny bit on this rich, but I think it's fair to say all indications are right now that Kellen Moore is the top candidate for that job.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Nick WrightScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 33On his Week 3 pick show, Nick Wright gave straight-up final-score predictions for five games, calling blowouts by Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami, a Jacksonville home win over New England, a narrow New Orleans win over the Raiders and a low-scoring Baltimore win over Dallas in Brazil. He also called Seattle the best team in the NFL with the league's best defense.
- Dan BeyerGame Outcome Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0For his Week 3 survivor pick, he took the Saints to beat the Raiders at home, saying he doesn't see Las Vegas staying unbeaten.
- Darrion GrayScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 45Predicted the Saints beat the Raiders 27-17 at home.
- John HendricksScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 43Predicted a lower-scoring Saints win over the Raiders, 24-19, with the defense carrying them.
- Lance MooreScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Called for a Saints victory over the Raiders by a score of 27-20.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.