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Tom Pelissero#5 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 31, 2025

Pelissero expects Kellen Moore to be hired as the Saints' next head coach right after the Super Bowl, doubts any team has a quarterback as its No. 1 overall player in the draft while still expecting Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders to be first-round picks, anticipates Mike McCarthy will get head-coaching opportunities in 2026, and sees Las Vegas as a plausible landing spot for Russell Wilson.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · 2 waiting
50.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 4Settled2 still waiting
#5Tom Pelissero’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tom Pelissero said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think it's fair to say all indications are right now that Kellen Moore is the top candidate for that job.
Tom Pelissero, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
Top 5 Pro Bowl Games Rich Would Crush
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidJan 31, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13, 2026
  1. 1Cam Ward to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)“Cam Ward and Shadoor Sanders are both probably gonna be first round picks based on everyone that I've spoken to here.”
  2. 2Shedeur Sanders to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)“Cam Ward and Shadoor Sanders are both probably gonna be first round picks based on everyone that I've spoken to here.”
  3. 3Kellen Moore to move to New Orleans Saints“So you have to connect the dots a tiny bit on this rich, but I think it's fair to say all indications are right now that Kellen Moore is the top candidate for that job.”
  4. 4Cam Ward to move“Cam Ward and Shadoor Sanders are both probably gonna be first round picks based on everyone that I've spoken to here.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Cam Ward to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)1Mock Draft PicksWent 110050—
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)2Mock Draft PicksWent 1440.7850—
Kellen Moore to move to New Orleans Saints3Trade and Signing Calls————
Cam Ward to move4Trade and Signing Calls————
4 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · 2 waiting50.450

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks and 2 trade and signing calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 50.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
first round picks (picks 1–32)They said
1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksCam Ward

    Cam Ward to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 1
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Cam Ward
    season:
    2024
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round picks (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Mock Draft PicksShedeur Sanders

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked “first round picks” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 144
    0.78Miss · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Shedeur Sanders
    season:
    2024
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    0.78
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    144
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0.78
    predicted pick:
    first round picks (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Trade and Signing CallsKellen MooreNew Orleans Saints

    Kellen Moore to move to New Orleans Saints

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  4. VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50.4naive 50

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