Jamie Erdahl#31 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 3, 2025
Erdahl picks Baker Mayfield for MVP, Micah Parsons for Defensive Player of the Year, and has the Buccaneers, Ravens, Giants and Jaguars in the playoffs, with Jacksonville winning the AFC South.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Jamie Erdahl said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromMichaeh. Parsons will be the next one to do it for the Green Bay Packers.
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Wednesday Hour 2: Playoff Teams Reactions, Brandon Graham, and Defensive POY Predictions!
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 3, 2025
- GradedAug 7–17, 2026
- 1Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division“I put the Jags in... they can win the AFS and South.”
- 2Baker Mayfield to win MVP“I put him in my playoff team selections, and that's why I go with Baker as Mambie.”
- 3Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year“Michael Parsons, you are new to the Green Bay Packer and you are the NFL Defensive Player of the Year story.”
- 4New York Giants to make the playoffs“I am most proud of me sticking to my New York Giants gut feeling”
- 5Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
- 6Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs“we all three have the Bucks and the Ravens in the playoffs”
- 7Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart“do you see russ or Dart taking that first snap? Jackson Dart?”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Baker Mayfield to win MVP2 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year3 | Award Picks | Myles Garrett won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| New York Giants to make the playoffs4 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs5 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs6 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart7 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +16.67 | |
| 7 calls · 2 hits · 5 misses · all settled | 28.6 | 27.4 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks, 2 award picks, 1 depth chart call and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 28.6 out of 100, against 27.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersJacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
2Award PicksBaker MayfieldTampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield to win MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Baker Mayfield0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
3Award PicksMicah ParsonsGreen Bay Packers
Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedMyles Garrett woncalled Micah Parsons0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Pat Surtain II, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Micah Parsons
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Myles Garrett
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
New York Giants to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- −200
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
5Playoff PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
6Playoff PicksBaltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- BAL
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 18
7Depth Chart CallsJaxson DartNew York Giants
Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×2difficulty=+16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
28.6naive 27.4
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.