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AJ Hawk#71 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 16, 2026

Hawk picked the Bills to beat the Broncos, the Patriots to beat the Texans behind Drake Maye at home, and the Rams to win in Chicago.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
#71AJ Hawk’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What AJ Hawk said

I am sticking with my Buffalo Bills right here.
Our reading: Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos
Where it was said
The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
The episode
PMS 2.0 1488 - NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview/Picks, Miami Head Coach Mario Cristobal, University of Miami President/CEO Joseph Echevarria, Jeff Passan, & AJ Hawk
The original
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  1. SaidJan 16
  2. GradedAug 14

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
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