David Nir· Nov 1, 2024
In passing, the piece treats North Carolina's governor's race as settled in Democrat Josh Stein's favor, saying he was the favorite even before his Republican opponent's campaign collapsed.
“Jackson and Bishop are competing to succeed Democrat Josh Stein, who was favored to win the governorship even before Republican Mark Robinson's campaign imploded in September”
published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter) · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“Jackson and Bishop are competing to succeed Democrat Josh Stein, who was favored to win the governorship even before Republican Mark Robinson's campaign imploded in September .”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-governor-nc
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- was favored to win the governorship
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-governor
- who won:
- Josh Stein
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Josh Stein
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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