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Ian Rapoport· Apr 24, 2025

Rapoport said Travis Hunter is likely the pick at No. 2 for the Browns, that Shedeur Sanders is in play at No. 3, and predicted Tetairoa McMillan would be the first receiver drafted. He also expected Brock Purdy's next deal to land around $50 million per year with Dak Prescott remaining the only quarterback above $60 million.

“I think I would be surprised if he's not receiver one.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast) · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 85.4 out of 100, against 31.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
1They said
2What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Tetairoa McMillan to be 1st wide receiver off the board

    “I think I would be surprised if he's not receiver one.”

    Close · 71Scored 70.71a naive guess scored 13.29+57.42 skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    naming one of the 31 at random averages 13.29
    skill:
    57.42
    player:
    Tetairoa McMillan
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    credit halves every two places
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    13.29
    position:
    wide receiver
    class size:
    31
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual order:
    2
    predicted order:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0

    Think this is wrong?

  • Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2

    “I think, but don't know, that Travis Hunter is probably the best guest to go there... right now, it's the Browns, and I would say likely, probably Browns.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Travis Hunter
    season:
    2025
    zero at:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    2
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More position order calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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