Ryan Wilson· Sep 28, 2026
Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
“McCarthy was my QB5 with a second-round grade because the traits were there, but there was still a considerable gap between what Michigan asked of him and what an NFL team would require of him as the face of the franchise.”
published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 mock draft pick and 1 position order call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 68.5 out of 100, against 47.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
positional finish5They said
5What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Position Order CallsJ.J. McCarthySep 28, 2026
J.J. McCarthy to be 5th quarterback off the board
“That was part of my concern in 2024. McCarthy was my QB5 with a second-round grade”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 44.76+55.24 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- naming one of the 11 at random averages 44.76
- skill:
- 55.24
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 44.76
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 5
- predicted order:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksJ.J. McCarthySep 28, 2026
J.J. McCarthy to be picked “second-round grade” (picks 33–64)
“McCarthy was my QB5 with a second-round grade ... My second-round grade reflected that gap and the concerns that come with the pressure and expectation of going in Round 1.”
Miss · 37Scored 36.92a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2024
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- J.J. McCarthy
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 36.92
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 36.92
- predicted pick:
- second-round grade (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
What others said about the same people
- Adam CarlsonTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Carlson names three Vikings he expects could be traded before the end of September: quarterback J.J. McCarthy, wide receiver Jordan Addison and linebacker Ivan Pace.
- Greg AumanTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Auman argues no quarterback is likely to replicate Sam Darnold's turnaround this season, but names five candidates. He expects Miami to hold a very high pick in the 2027 draft, and thinks J.J. McCarthy will eventually be traded for a late-round pick or cut by the Vikings.
- Bucky BrooksTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Brooks predicted J.J. McCarthy won't be on the Vikings' roster (traded or released), said Kyler Murray wins the Vikings' QB competition, made a series of 2025 award picks, made 2026 Heisman/draft projections including Arch Manning as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, and said none of Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow win a championship this season.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Named several players as candidates to be traded before Sunday's cut deadline, including Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy, Cardinals edge Josh Sweat and Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr.
- Bryan DeArdoTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100A CBS Sports piece lists veterans it expects could be traded before the 53-man roster deadline, including quarterbacks Anthony Richardson (with Buffalo floated as a landing spot), J.J. McCarthy and Will Howard, plus Jerry Jeudy, Joey Porter Jr., Tyrone Tracy Jr., Kayvon Thibodeaux, Josh Sweat, Kristian Fulton and Marist Liufau. It also says Mason Rudolph's and Drew Allar's roster spots in Pittsburgh are secure.
- Matthew CollerTrade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Coller argues J.J. McCarthy's development is far behind schedule and that he will likely end up needing a fresh start with another team rather than developing into the Vikings' answer at quarterback.
More position order calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Nick ShookPosition Order Calls · Olaivavega IoaneMiss · 35Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Rhett LewisPosition Order Calls · Tyler ShoughHit · 100Lewis names Louisville's Tyler Shough as the new QB3 of the class — the third quarterback off the board — and views Milroe as a second-round selection.
- Nick WrightPosition Order Calls · Carnell TateHit · 100Nick Wright laid out his full mock draft 3.0 for the 2026 NFL Draft, pick by pick through the first round, and also predicted AJ Brown would finish top five in the NFL in receiving yards with the Patriots.
- Todd McShayPosition Order Calls · K.C. ConcepcionHit · 100McShay's mock draft 4.0 has Fernando Mendoza and David Bailey going 1-2 to the Raiders and Jets, the Saints trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Titans taking Jeremiah Love at 4, the Giants taking Francis Mauigoa at 5 (though he'd now switch to Sonny Styles), the Cowboys trading up to 6, the Jets trading up to 7 for Carnell Tate, and Arizona trading up to 30 for Ty Simpson. He also predicts seven offensive tackles go in the first round and that Love, Styles, Downs and Reese all go in the top seven.
- Keith SanchezPosition Order Calls · Jordyn TysonClose · 71As relayed by Harrison, Sanchez's latest mock draft has Carnell Tate going to Washington, Jordan Tyson as the first receiver off the board at No. 5 to the Giants, Makai Lemmon at 11 and Chris Brasel at 30 to Miami, Sonny Styles at No. 8 to New Orleans, and Caleb Downs at No. 13 to the Rams.
- Field YatesPosition Order Calls · Jordyn TysonHit · 100As relayed by Rich Eisen, Yates' two-round mock draft has Fernando Mendoza first overall, followed by three edge/defenders, Caleb Downs fifth, and a series of other named picks including Eli Stowers to Tampa Bay at 46.