Pat Fitzmaurice· Apr 19, 2026
Fitzmorris made 10 first-round mock picks, starting with Arvel Reese to the Cardinals at No. 3 and including Caleb Downs to Dallas at 12 and Dillon Thieneman to Pittsburgh at 21.
“How about with Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 10 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 66 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick30They said
27What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksChris JohnsonMiami DolphinsApr 19, 2026
Chris Johnson to be picked at number 30
“Chris Johnson, cornerback from San Diego State... So he fits into the first round with Miami.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.17 against a shuffle’s 50+39.17 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.17
- player:
- Chris Johnson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.17
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateCleveland BrownsApr 19, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6
“They're gonna take Carnel Tate's wide receiver. Ohio State”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 9
“So Francis Mawanoa, the tackle from Miami is going to be the pick here”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsDallas CowboysApr 19, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 12
“How about with Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State. What a great runout for Dallas staying put at number twelve”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 15
“Keldric Falk the edge from Auburn. Buccaneers do need an edge.”
Close · 50Scored 50 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Keldric Faulk
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 31
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 50
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCade McDonaldMinnesota VikingsApr 19, 2026
Cade McDonald to be picked at number 18
“But I'm going to give the Vikings Caden McDonald, the defensive tackle from Ohio State.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Cade McDonald
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 21
“Dylan Theeneman. They are going to take the safety from Oregon.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksKadyn ProctorCleveland BrownsApr 19, 2026
Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 24
“They are going to take Cayden Proctor... So they are going to go with Procter.”
Close · 59Scored 59.46 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Kadyn Proctor
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 59.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 59.46
- predicted pick:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb LomuSan Francisco 49ersApr 19, 2026
Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27
“Caleb Blomo, the tackle from Utah. I think the forty nine ers have to start hatching a plan to replace Trent Williams”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Caleb Lomu
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 28
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseArizona CardinalsApr 19, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“R VIL Reese is still on the board for the Cardinals. Do they take him or go somewhere else. They are going to take him”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 87.5 against a shuffle’s 50+37.5 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 37.5
- player:
- Arvel Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 87.5
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Dallas CowboysHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Jermod McCoyMiss · 2Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.