Carl Cannon· Nov 6, 2024

Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.

“We we might get the senate, you know, going Republican. We kinda half expect that.”

said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics Podcast · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 6, 2024
“He's gonna be the last statewide democrat elected in a while, I think, in that state. So that's that's gone... So West Virginia is one seat.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 6, 2024
“Ohio is now dependably Republican statewide elections. Donald Trump's poised to carry it”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 6, 2024
“We we might get the senate, you know, going Republican. We kinda half expect that.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.