Derek Brown· Jun 14, 2025
Brown is scared of the projections on Chase Brown (RB17), Tyreek Hill (WR14/15), Kyren Williams (RB1 range) and Xavier Worthy (WR20 in PPR), calling each likely to fall short of their draft price; he sits in line with the QB20 projection on Drake May but thinks the rushing touchdown total is light.
“if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 4 fantasy bust calls and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Fantasy Bust CallsTyreek HillMiami DolphinsJun 14, 2025
Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)
“So this projection and where we are where the consensus is on Tyrek Hill scares the Bejesus out of me because I can't see him paying all on this.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver fifteen and ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyreek Hill
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR23
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR107
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)
“If he goes back into that role and Mahomes is still one of the worst deep all passes in the NFL, he's not going to come close to paying all this projection, not even close”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- the wide receiver twenty
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Fantasy Bust CallsChase BrownCincinnati BengalsJun 14, 2025
Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)
“if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- twelve RB overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Fantasy Bust CallsKyren WilliamsLos Angeles RamsJun 14, 2025
Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)
“So I was in on Kiren last year, but I am out this year... people are drafting him as an RB one, he easily could be an RB two in this offense”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- ranking him as an RB one
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kyren Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points
“I'm actually in line with these projections, Like right now, I've got Drake May as my QB twenty I think”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 20
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WormeliFantasy Bust Calls · Zay FlowersMiss · 0Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Chris WelshFantasy Bust Calls · Austin EkelerHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Pat FitzmauriceFantasy Bust Calls · Breece HallMiss · 0Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Joe PisapiaFantasy Bust Calls · Christian McCaffreyMiss · 0Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Sean KernerFantasy Bust Calls · Travis HunterMiss · 0Kerner's top move is Travis Hunter to Jacksonville, though he calls Hunter's WR30 price a bit rich given usage uncertainty. He is all-in on Ashton Jeanty as a workhorse with top-five rookie upside, likes Ben Johnson's arrival for Caleb Williams and rookie TE Colston Loveland, expects DeVonta Adams to boost Matthew Stafford's touchdown total over 22.5, and is heavily drafting Jayden Higgins as Houston's No. 2 receiver.
- Jake CielyFantasy Bust Calls · Romeo DoubsMiss · 0Seeley mocks anyone going back to Kyle Pitts, treating him as a tight end who will burn drafters again, while touting Trey Benson as a discounted value who remains the clear backup to James Connor. He also calls out late-round picks like Justice Hill, Rashad Bateman and Romeo Doubs as upside-less bench wastes.