Derek Brown#12 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 14, 2025
Brown is scared of the projections on Chase Brown (RB17), Tyreek Hill (WR14/15), Kyren Williams (RB1 range) and Xavier Worthy (WR20 in PPR), calling each likely to fall short of their draft price; they sit in line with the QB20 projection on Drake May but thinks the rushing touchdown total is light.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Derek Brown said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromif that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - 6 Fantasy Football Projections That SCARE Us For 2025 (Ep. 1587)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJun 13, 2025
- GradedAug 5–19, 2026
- 1Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)“So this projection and where we are where the consensus is on Tyrek Hill scares the Bejesus out of me because I can't see him paying all on this.”
- 2Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)“If he goes back into that role and Mahomes is still one of the worst deep all passes in the NFL, he's not going to come close to paying all this projection, not even close”
- 3Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)“if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown.”
- 4Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)“So I was in on Kiren last year, but I am out this year... people are drafting him as an RB one, he easily could be an RB two in this offense”
- 5Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points“I'm actually in line with these projections, Like right now, I've got Drake May as my QB twenty I think”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)1 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)2 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)3 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | 0 | 100 | −200 | |
| Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)4 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points5 | Positional Finishes | Finished #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 60 | 20 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 4 fantasy bust calls and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Fantasy Bust CallsTyreek HillMiami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver fifteen and ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyreek Hill
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR23
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR107
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
2Fantasy Bust CallsXavier WorthyKansas City Chiefs
Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- the wide receiver twenty
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
3Fantasy Bust CallsChase BrownCincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×2difficulty=−200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- twelve RB overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Chase Brown
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB10
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
4Fantasy Bust CallsKyren WilliamsLos Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- ranking him as an RB one
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Kyren Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
5Positional FinishesDrake MayeNew England Patriots
Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #2called #20 · by fantasy points0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 20
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
60naive 20
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Welsh · Fantasy Bust Calls · Austin Ekeler · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Pat Fitzmaurice · Fantasy Bust Calls · Breece Hall · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.Joe Pisapia · Fantasy Bust Calls · Christian McCaffrey · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Sean Kerner · Fantasy Bust Calls · Travis Hunter · Miss 0
Kerner's top move is Travis Hunter to Jacksonville, though they call Hunter's WR30 price a bit rich given usage uncertainty. They are all-in on Ashton Jeanty as a workhorse with top-five rookie upside, likes Ben Johnson's arrival for Caleb Williams and rookie TE Colston Loveland, expects DeVonta Adams to boost Matthew Stafford's touchdown total over 22.5, and is heavily drafting Jayden Higgins as Houston's No. 2 receiver.Jake Ciely · Fantasy Bust Calls · Romeo Doubs · Miss 0
Seeley mocks anyone going back to Kyle Pitts, treating them as a tight end who will burn drafters again, while touting Trey Benson as a discounted value who remains the clear backup to James Connor. They also call out late-round picks like Justice Hill, Rashad Bateman and Romeo Doubs as upside-less bench wastes.