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Colin Cowherd#54 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 19, 2025

Cowherd delivered their Blazing Five picks: Bears over Packers 27-23, Giants upset Vikings 28-27, Bengals over Dolphins 30-20, Patriots outright over Ravens 28-27, and 49ers over Colts 34-24. They also picked Oklahoma to win its college playoff game and said they'd give the MVP to Josh Allen over Matthew Stafford.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 6calls landed2 hits · 3 close calls · 1 miss · all settled
62.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
31.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6 of 6Settlednone still waiting
#54Colin Cowherd’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Colin Cowherd said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I like the Bears to win and cover twenty seven to twenty three.
Colin Cowherd, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode
THE HERD - Hour 2 - Colin's Blazing 5 picks for week 16, Caleb Williams is making a name for himself, Robert Mays
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidDec 19, 2025
  2. GradedAug 7–17, 2026
  1. 1Chicago Bears 27 — Packers 23“I like the Bears at home minus one and a half... I like the Bears to win and cover twenty seven to twenty three.”
  2. 2San Francisco 49ers 34 — Colts 24“I like the Niners to win and cover thirty four to twenty four”
  3. 3New England Patriots 28 — Ravens 27“I think the Patriots went outright twenty eight twenty seven.”
  4. 4Cincinnati Bengals 30 — Miami 20“I'm going to take Burrow in Cincinnati to win thirty to twenty in cover”
  5. 5New York Giants 28 — Vikings 27“I'll take the points. Giants win twenty eight twenty seven.”
  6. 6Josh Allen to win MVP“I would give Josh Allen the MVP over Stafford”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Chicago Bears 27 — Packers 231Score Predictions—95.2490.54+5.49
San Francisco 49ers 34 — Colts 242Score Predictions—73.814.83+80.71
New England Patriots 28 — Ravens 273Score Predictions—92.8645.3+55.64
Cincinnati Bengals 30 — Miami 204Score Predictions—66.670+78
New York Giants 28 — Vikings 275Score Predictions—45.2447.69−2.86
Josh Allen to win MVP6Award PicksMatthew Stafford won000
6 calls · 2 hits · 3 close calls · 1 miss · all settled62.331.4

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 5 score predictions and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 62.3 out of 100, against 31.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsChicago Bears

    Chicago Bears 27 — Packers 23

    VerdictHit
    95.24Hit · naive 90.54
    95.24this call90.54a naive guess4.7better than naive1.17difficulty+5.49skill

    Closing line (Dec 20): Bears by 1.5, total 45.5 · this 27–23 calls a bigger Bears win (by 4) and more points (50). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    16-22
    skill:
    5.49
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    95.24
    baseline:
    90.54
    difficulty:
    1.17
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    3
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    4
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers 34 — Colts 24

    VerdictClose
    73.81Close · naive 4.83
    73.81this call4.83a naive guess68.98better than naive1.17difficulty+80.71skill

    Closing line (Dec 22): 49ers by 4.5, total 46.5 · this 34–24 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 10) and more points (58). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    48-27
    skill:
    80.71
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    73.81
    baseline:
    4.83
    difficulty:
    1.17
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    21
    weeks left when called:
    3
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Score PredictionsNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots 28 — Ravens 27

    VerdictHit
    92.86Hit · naive 45.3
    92.86this call45.3a naive guess47.56better than naive1.17difficulty+55.64skill

    Closing line (Dec 21): Ravens by 3.5, total 48.5 · this 28–27 calls a Patriots win (by 1; the line gave the Patriots 38%) and more points (55).

    How this was scored
    score:
    28-24
    skill:
    55.64
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    92.86
    baseline:
    45.3
    difficulty:
    1.17
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    3
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    1
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Score PredictionsCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals 30 — Miami 20

    VerdictClose
    66.67Close · naive 0
    66.67this call0a naive guess66.67better than naive1.17difficulty+78skill

    Closing line (Dec 21): Bengals by 3.5, total 48.5 · this 30–20 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 10) and more points (50). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    45-21
    skill:
    78
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    66.67
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.17
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    24
    weeks left when called:
    3
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Score PredictionsNew York Giants

    New York Giants 28 — Vikings 27

    VerdictClose
    45.24Close · naive 47.69
    45.24this call47.69a naive guess−2.45worse than naive1.17difficulty−2.86skill

    Closing line (Dec 21): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 28–27 calls a Giants win (by 1; the line gave the Giants 43%) and more points (55). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    16-13
    skill:
    −2.86
    they picked:
    NYG
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    45.24
    baseline:
    47.69
    difficulty:
    1.17
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    3
    naive home margin:
    2.03
    predicted margin:
    1
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo Bills

    Josh Allen to win MVP

    What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Josh Allen
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.17difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    0
    player:
    Josh Allen
    season:
    2025
    who won:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    no
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1.17
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    3
    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once

    62.3naive 31.4

Who this take is about

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