Hondo Carpenter#14 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 24, 2026

Carpenter predicts special-teams linebacker Segun Olubi will make the Raiders' 53-man roster, with Las Vegas carrying five inside linebackers. They also note projections that the Raiders keep all three quarterbacks, including Aidan O'Connell.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2 of 2Settlednone still waiting

#14Hondo Carpenter’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Hondo Carpenter said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

for the first time all year, I now think he will make the 53-man roster, and the Silver and Black will carry five ILBs

Hondo Carpenter, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: Sports Illustrated
The piece: Raiders Training Camp Report 25: Jeanty Injured, Pressure Mounts
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidAug 23
GradedSep 25

1Aidan O'Connell to make the roster“Janocko is thrilled to have him on the roster, as projections indicate the Raiders will keep all three QBs.”
2Segun Olubi to make the roster“Olubi is a special teams standout, and for the first time all year, I now think he will make the 53-man roster, and the Silver and Black will carry five ILBs.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Aidan O'Connell to make the roster¹	Roster Spot Calls	3 weeks on a 53	100	100	0
Segun Olubi to make the roster²	Roster Spot Calls	3 weeks on a 53	100	100	0
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled			100	100

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 roster spot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Roster Spot Calls Aidan O'Connell Las Vegas Raiders
Aidan O'Connell to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
LV
skill:
0
player:
Aidan O'Connell
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Roster Spot Calls Segun Olubi Las Vegas Raiders
Segun Olubi to make the roster
What happened3 weeks on a 53
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
LV
skill:
0
player:
Segun Olubi
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 100