Chris Brockman· Dec 30, 2024
Brockman argued the Commanders will advance further in the playoffs than any other East Coast team, that the Vikings are Super Bowl-bound, that Kevin O'Connell has locked up Coach of the Year, and that Joe Burrow should be MVP if the Bengals make the playoffs. He also predicted the Buccaneers could beat the Lions or Vikings in a wild card game.
“Rich, I think the commanders are gonna be the East Coast team that goes furthest in the playoffs.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 coach award pick, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 30.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersDec 30, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Vikings
“You don't think the Bucs can knock off the Vikings? They sure can.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 21.88+12.71 skillHow this was scored
- note:
- these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
- skill:
- 12.71
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2024
- ceiling:
- 66.67
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 21.88
- opponent:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- 14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 7 won a game there
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- right opponent:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- picked won aplayoff game:
- no
- picked reached the playoffs:
- yes
- opponent reached the playoffs:
- yes
- Conference ChampionsMinnesota VikingsDec 30, 2024
Minnesota Vikings to reach the Super Bowl
“I think the Vikings are going Super Bowl. That's not an overreaction.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-111 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -111
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Award PicksJoe BurrowCincinnati BengalsDec 30, 2024
Joe Burrow to win MVP
“Rich, if the Bengals make the playoffs, Joe Burrow should be MVP.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- Coach Award PicksDec 30, 2024
Kevin O'Connor to win Coach of the Year
“Kevin O'Connor locked up coach of the year. Right?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+111 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Kevin O'Connell
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin Stefanski, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 111
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Kevin O'Connell
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
Mike Vrabel to move to New England Patriots
“They should blow it up and hire Mike Vrabel to build around Drake May.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Minnesota VikingsHit · 90Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
More coach award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Matt HasselbeckCoach Award PicksMiss · 0Hasselbeck agreed on the Bills and Ravens as AFC division winners, picked the Colts (with Daniel Jones) to win the AFC South, the Broncos to win the AFC West, the Seahawks to win the NFC West, and tabbed Brian Flores for a Coach of the Year-type honor. He also said the Patriots would make a big jump and potentially reach the playoffs, and named Minnesota, Las Vegas, New England and Chicago as offseason winners.
- Richard ShermanCoach Award PicksHit · 100Sherman picked the Eagles, Vikings, Ravens and Bills in their wild-card games, named Lamar Jackson MVP, Patrick Surtain DPOY, Kevin O'Connell Coach of the Year, put Jared Verse in the top three of Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and gave a Week 18 power ranking with Kansas City first.
- Pat GustavsonCoach Award PicksMiss · 0Gustafson picked the Bears, Eagles, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, the Rams and Bears in the NFC, the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, and the Patriots to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl. His awards slate included Stafford for MVP, Puka for OPOY and Liam Cohen for Coach of the Year.
- Brandon CarneyCoach Award PicksHit · 100Carney made a full playoff bracket, picking the Bears, Niners, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, then Seahawks and Rams in the NFC divisional, Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, with the Rams beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl. He also gave award picks including Stafford for MVP and Vrabel for Coach of the Year.
- Rich EisenCoach Award PicksHit · 100Eisen gave his Week 13 power rankings, with the Rams first, Patriots second and the Cowboys entering at No. 10, and also named New England and Philadelphia as the first teams to clinch playoff spots, picked Seattle to beat Minnesota, and tabbed Drake Maye as an MVP finalist and Mike Vrabel as Coach of the Year.
- Rich EisenCoach Award PicksMiss · 0Rich Eisen reaffirmed his pick of the Lions to win the NFC while insisting the Eagles remain the team to beat, predicted the Colts beat the Cardinals on a last-second field goal, said the Chargers will not miss the playoffs, and expects Jake Browning to keep starting in Cincinnati and JJ McCarthy to return as Minnesota's starter. He also praised Jonathan Taylor as the best running back and OPOY-caliber, called Emeka Abuka the offensive rookie of the year, agreed Kyle Shanahan is the coach of the year front-runner, and said the Jets will pick in the top five.