Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 30, 2024
Brockman argued the Commanders will advance further in the playoffs than any other East Coast team, that the Vikings are Super Bowl-bound, that Kevin O'Connell has locked up Coach of the Year, and that Joe Burrow should be MVP if the Bengals make the playoffs. They also predicted the Buccaneers could beat the Lions or Vikings in a wild card game.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
1 of 4calls landed1 hit · 3 misses · 1 waiting
33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
30.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4 of 5Settled1 still waiting
What Chris Brockman said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromRich, I think the commanders are gonna be the East Coast team that goes furthest in the playoffs.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 17: Automatic Home Playoff Games For Division Winners Need To Go
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidDec 30, 2024
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Vikings“You don't think the Bucs can knock off the Vikings? They sure can.”
- 2Minnesota Vikings to reach the Super Bowl“I think the Vikings are going Super Bowl. That's not an overreaction.”
- 3Joe Burrow to win MVP“Rich, if the Bengals make the playoffs, Joe Burrow should be MVP.”
- 4Kevin O'Connor to win Coach of the Year“Kevin O'Connor locked up coach of the year. Right?”
- 5Mike Vrabel to move to New England Patriots“They should blow it up and hire Mike Vrabel to build around Drake May.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Vikings1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 33.33 | 21.88 | +12.71 | |
| Minnesota Vikings to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | PHI and KC won | 0 | 100 | −111 | |
| Joe Burrow to win MVP3 | Award Picks | Josh Allen won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kevin O'Connor to win Coach of the Year4 | Coach Award Picks | Kevin O'Connell won | 100 | 0 | +111 | |
| Mike Vrabel to move to New England Patriots5 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 1 hit · 3 misses · 1 waiting | 33.3 | 30.5 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 coach award pick, 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 30.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Vikings
VerdictMiss33.33Miss · naive 21.8833.33this call−21.88a naive guess=11.45better than naive×1.11difficulty=+12.71skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- note:
- these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
- skill:
- 12.71
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2024
- ceiling:
- 66.67
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 21.88
- opponent:
- MIN
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- 14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 7 won a game there
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- right opponent:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- picked won aplayoff game:
- no
- picked reached the playoffs:
- yes
- opponent reached the playoffs:
- yes
2Conference ChampionsMinnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked MIN0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.11difficulty=−111skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −111
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
3Award PicksJoe BurrowCincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow to win MVP
What happenedJosh Allen woncalled Joe Burrow0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.11difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Joe Burrow
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
Kevin O'Connor to win Coach of the Year
What happenedKevin O'Connell won100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.11difficulty=+111skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- coach_of_the_year
- coach:
- Kevin O'Connell
- naive:
- the naive pick was Kevin Stefanski, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 111
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Kevin O'Connell
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.11
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 2
5Trade and Signing CallsMike VrabelNew England Patriots
Mike Vrabel to move to New England Patriots
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
33.3naive 30.5
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.Justin Penik · Trade and Signing Calls · Aaron Jones · Hit 100
Pennock predicted Sam Darnold to Pittsburgh, Zach Baun re-signing in Philadelphia, Charvarius Ward and Jamien Sherwood to Washington, Cam Robinson to Chicago as left tackle, Cam Bynum to the Jets, Darius Slayton to the Chargers, Aaron Jones back to Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers to the Giants.
More coach award picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Matt Hasselbeck · Coach Award Picks · Miss 0
Hasselbeck agreed on the Bills and Ravens as AFC division winners, picked the Colts (with Daniel Jones) to win the AFC South, the Broncos to win the AFC West, the Seahawks to win the NFC West, and tabbed Brian Flores for a Coach of the Year-type honor. They also said the Patriots would make a big jump and potentially reach the playoffs, and named Minnesota, Las Vegas, New England and Chicago as offseason winners.Richard Sherman · Coach Award Picks · Hit 100
Sherman picked the Eagles, Vikings, Ravens and Bills in their wild-card games, named Lamar Jackson MVP, Patrick Surtain DPOY, Kevin O'Connell Coach of the Year, put Jared Verse in the top three of Defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and gave a Week 18 power ranking with Kansas City first.Pat Gustavson · Coach Award Picks · Miss 0
Gustafson picked the Bears, Eagles, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, the Rams and Bears in the NFC, the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, and the Patriots to beat the Bears in the Super Bowl. Their awards slate included Stafford for MVP, Puka for OPOY and Liam Cohen for Coach of the Year.Brandon Carney · Coach Award Picks · Hit 100
Carney made a full playoff bracket, picking the Bears, Niners, Rams, Patriots, Jaguars and Texans in the wild card round, then Seahawks and Rams in the NFC divisional, Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, with the Rams beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They also gave award picks including Stafford for MVP and Vrabel for Coach of the Year.Rich Eisen · Coach Award Picks · Hit 100
Eisen gave their Week 13 power rankings, with the Rams first, Patriots second and the Cowboys entering at No. 10, and also named New England and Philadelphia as the first teams to clinch playoff spots, picked Seattle to beat Minnesota, and tabbed Drake Maye as an MVP finalist and Mike Vrabel as Coach of the Year.Rich Eisen · Coach Award Picks · Miss 0
Rich Eisen reaffirmed their pick of the Lions to win the NFC while insisting the Eagles remain the team to beat, predicted the Colts beat the Cardinals on a last-second field goal, said the Chargers will not miss the playoffs, and expects Jake Browning to keep starting in Cincinnati and JJ McCarthy to return as Minnesota's starter. They also praised Jonathan Taylor as the best running back and OPOY-caliber, called Emeka Abuka the offensive rookie of the year, agreed Kyle Shanahan is the coach of the year front-runner, and said the Jets will pick in the top five.