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Zach HicksSep 18, 2026

Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Colts (podcast)Hear the original

98Hit · out of 100
Chiefs 33–30What happenedcalled Chiefs by 4 · won by 3
94.94A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
97.62This callout of 100
+5.2Skillafter difficulty

What Zach Hicks said

Let's do, like, twenty three nineteen, Chiefs or whatever in this one.
Our reading: Kansas City Chiefs 23 — Colts 19
Where it was said
Locked On Colts (podcast)
The episode
PREDICTION: Will Indianapolis Colts SHOCK Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs On SNF?
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 29

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 97.6 out of 100, against 94.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs 23 — Colts 19

    What happenedChiefs 33–30called Chiefs by 4 · won by 3
    97.62Hit · naive 94.94
    97.62this call94.94a naive guess2.68better than naive1.94difficulty+5.2skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Chiefs by 6, total 46.5 · this 23–19 calls a closer game (Chiefs by 4) and fewer points (42).

    How this was scored
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    5.2
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    97.62
    baseline:
    94.94
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    0.88
    predicted margin:
    4
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

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