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Matt Harmon· Oct 15, 2026

Harmon picked Green Bay, Houston, Chicago, Baltimore, New England and Buffalo in Week 6, said the Chargers lose to the Chiefs and finish with about four wins, and offered a Hail Mary that Cam Ward throws for more than 270 yards.

“Cam Ward is going to is going to throw for more than 270 yards this week.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast) · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Where this call stands in the room

Los Angeles Chargers · 2026 season · wins

3 calls from 3 pundits between 4 wins and 9 wins. Matt Harmon said 4 wins. the room's median is 9 wins. not settled yet

Matt Harmon — 4 winsthe room — 3 calls from 3 punditsmedian 9 wins

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The games in this take

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsOct 15, 2026

    Buffalo Bills to beat Raiders

    “Bills win Raiders cover. Easy call.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+172 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    33-30
    skill:
    172
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LV
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Bills by 5.5 · favorite pick, Bills about 2 in 3 (68%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsOct 15, 2026

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat chargers

    “maybe they might win four games, and I don't think it's gonna be this week... I can't, in my wildest dreams, picture how they win this game.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    6-22
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Chiefs by 7.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (79%).

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersOct 15, 2026

    Green Bay Packers to beat cowboys

    “I'll go Green Bay here... I'm gonna go with the the Packers here in a game that's more or less even”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    GB
    score:
    13-23
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    GB
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5 · a toss-up, Cowboys 51%, Packers 49%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksNew England PatriotsOct 15, 2026

    New England Patriots to beat jets

    “Yeah. I'll go patriots. I just think the jets are kinda running out of rope here.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    19-26
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NE
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Patriots by 7.5 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%).

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansOct 15, 2026

    Houston Texans to beat Jags

    “I think I think the Texans can steal this one. I don't know if I have a good reason for it.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+172 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    HOU
    score:
    34-31
    skill:
    172
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    JAX
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 18): Jaguars by 2.5 · underdog pick, Texans 44%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Season Win TotalsLos Angeles ChargersOct 15, 2026

    Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 4 wins

    “They're probably gonna win, like, four. And, well, maybe, shoot, maybe they might win four games”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

More game outcome picks

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