Matt SeveranceSep 22, 2026

The SportsLine model projects Buffalo to beat the Chargers 31-21 and has Los Angeles finishing the season with about six wins.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

1 of 1calls landed1 hit · 1 waiting

95.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 1 call

82.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

1Games calledeveryone’s picks below

1Waitingnot graded yet

What Matt Severance said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

The SportsLine Projection Model has Buffalo winning 31-21.

Matt Severance, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: Winless Chargers have made unwanted history, face season-defining NFL Week 3 game at Bills on Sunday
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 22
PlayedSep 27
GradedSep 28

1Buffalo Bills 31 — Chargers 21“The SportsLine Projection Model has Buffalo winning 31-21.”
2Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 6 wins“The SportsLine Projection Model has L.A. with an updated win total of just 6.0 and a 6.1% shot at the playoffs.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Buffalo Bills 31 — Chargers 21¹	Score Predictions	Bills 24–16	95.24	82.07	+24.89
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 6 wins²	Season Win Totals	—	—	—	—
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 waiting			95.2	82.1

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 score prediction and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 95.2 out of 100, against 82.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Los Angeles Chargers · 2026 season · wins

Matt Severance — 6 winsthe room — 14 calls from 10 punditsmedian 9 wins

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

1Score Predictions Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 31 — Chargers 21
What happenedBills 24–16called Bills by 10 · won by 8
95.24Hit · naive 82.07
95.24this call82.07a naive guess13.17better than naive1.89difficulty+24.89skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7, total 50.5 · this 31–21 calls a bigger Bills win (by 10) and more points (52).
How this was scored
score:
16-24
skill:
24.89
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
82.07
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
2Season Win Totals Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 6 wins
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?