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Alain Poupart#33 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 26, 2026

Previewing the Week 3 home opener, they predicted the Chiefs would comfortably beat the Dolphins, saying Miami's defense couldn't contain Kansas City and its offense wasn't ready for a shootout.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

74Close · out of 100
Chiefs 24–10What happenedcalled Chiefs by 25 · won by 14
17.78A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
73.81This callout of 100
#33Alain Poupart’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Alain Poupart said

Final Prediction: Chiefs 34, Dolphins 9
Our reading: Kansas City Chiefs 34 — Dolphins 9
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Setting the Stage for the Dolphins-Chiefs Week 3 Matchup
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 26
  2. PlayedSep 27
  3. GradedSep 28

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 73.8 out of 100, against 17.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs 34 — Dolphins 9

    What happenedChiefs 24–10called Chiefs by 25 · won by 14
    73.81Close · naive 17.78
    73.81this call17.78a naive guess56.03better than naive1.89difficulty+105.89skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Chiefs by 10, total 45.5 · this 34–9 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 25) and fewer points (43).

    How this was scored
    score:
    24-10
    skill:
    105.89
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    73.81
    baseline:
    17.78
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    14
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    25
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

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