Matthew Yglesias· Oct 28, 2024
Yglesias argues the Democratic Party is structurally hollow, and in passing says Democrats have virtually no chance of winning congressional majorities, implying Republicans hold both chambers.
“In practice, the odds of Democrats winning congressional majorities are minuscule, so this probably won't actually matter.”
published in writing · Slow Boring · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlOct 28, 2024
“In practice, the odds of Democrats winning congressional majorities are minuscule, so this probably won't actually matter.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- the odds of Democrats winning congressional majorities are minuscule
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2024-house
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
- Chamber ControlOct 28, 2024
“In practice, the odds of Democrats winning congressional majorities are minuscule, so this probably won't actually matter.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- the odds of Democrats winning congressional majorities are minuscule
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
More chamber control
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Carl CannonChamber ControlHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Sam WangChamber ControlMiss · 0Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.
- Henry OlsenChamber ControlHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.
- David PakmanChamber ControlHit · 100Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber.
- Erick-Woods EricksonChamber ControlHit · 100He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats.