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John BickleyOct 27, 2022

Bickley said a red wave was coming that would amount to a tsunami in the House, leaving only the Senate in doubt.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro ShowHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
+102Skillafter difficulty

What John Bickley said

Might be a tsunami certainly in the house. The question is the senate.
John Bickley’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
The Ben Shapiro Show
The episode
Daily Wire Backstage: The Red Wave
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidOct 26, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “what we're seeing here is there's a wave... Red wave coming, a red wave coming. Might be a tsunami certainly in the house. The question is the senate.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    102
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    who controls it:
    Republican
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    12
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.