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Kristian RamosOct 31, 2022

Discussing the Senate map, they argued Democrats would hold the Senate, crediting Latino voters in the Southwest and Latino and Black voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania with delivering the majority.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Rising (The Hill)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Control of CongressThe callsettled
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Kristian Ramos said

I predict it will be Latinos in the Southwest and black and Latino voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania who are putting us over the top.
Kristian Ramos’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
Rising (The Hill)
The episode
Paul Pelosi ASSAULTED At Home, Dems RAIL Against The Right, PA Latinos PREFER REPUBLICANS On The Economy, Will Fetterman Debate Performance SINK Dems?, Elon Musk DELETES Tweet Linking To CONSPIRACY That Paul Pelosi KNEW His Attacker, And More: 10.31.22
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  1. SaidOct 31, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Control of Congress

    “Let's look at the senate map... I predict it will be Latinos in the Southwest and black and Latino voters in Georgia and Pennsylvania who are putting us over the top.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    7
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.