JP Acosta· Mar 2, 2026
Acosta gave draft ranges for combine risers — Nussmeier in the third round, Kenyon Sadiq in round one, Chris Johnson in round two — and made picks 2, 4, 6 and every other selection in a post-combine first-round mock draft.
“I think the third round is where about is about where I draft him.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Pushing the Pile (podcast) · read the original →
26 checkable claims — 26 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 38 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
20 of 26 have settled so far, averaging 62.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Garrett Nussmeier
- Chris Johnson
- Blake Miller
- Houston Texans
- Denzel Boston
- Seattle Seahawks
- Makai Lemon
- New York Jets
- Dillon Thieneman
- Buffalo Bills
- Caleb Downs
- Cincinnati Bengals
- K.C. Concepcion
- Cleveland Browns
- Monroe Freeling
- Rueben Bain
- Tennessee Titans
- Arvell Reese
- Jeremiyah Love
- New Orleans Saints
- Kanye Savic
- Mansoor Delane
- Dallas Cowboys
- Caleb Banks
- Minnesota Vikings
- Keldric Faulk
- Los Angeles Chargers
- C.J. Allen
- Cade McDonald
- Denver Broncos
- Olaivavega Ioane
- Baltimore Ravens
- Jacob Rodriguez
- Cole Payton
- Chase Pizzantes
- Malachi Lawrence
- Dennis Sutton
- Deion Burks
26 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksGarrett NussmeierMar 2, 2026
Garrett Nussmeier to be picked “the third round” (picks 65–100)
“I think I would lean more towards day two. I think the third round is where about is about where I draft him... I think he's more of a third round guy at this point.”
Miss · 0Scored 0.16 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.54 against a shuffle’s 50+35.54 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.54
- player:
- Garrett Nussmeier
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.16
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 249
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.16
- predicted pick:
- the third round (picks 65–100)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.54
- Mock Draft PicksChris JohnsonMar 2, 2026
Chris Johnson to be picked “the second round” (picks 33–64)
“if you're gonna draft him in the second round, which is where I think he's gonna go... he's not going to leave day two”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.54 against a shuffle’s 50+35.54 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.54
- player:
- Chris Johnson
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- the second round (picks 33–64)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.54
- Mock Draft PicksBlake MillerHouston TexansMar 2, 2026
Blake Miller to be picked at number 28
“I think I'm gonna take Blake Miller here Yeah. From tackle from Clemson”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 85.54 against a shuffle’s 50+35.54 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 35.54
- player:
- Blake Miller
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 62.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 17
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 62.09
- predicted pick:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 85.54
Denzel Boston to be picked at number 32
“32 this is this is where it stops for Denzel Boston. I think you just keep him home”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Denzel Boston
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksMakai LemonNew York JetsMar 2, 2026
Makai Lemon to be picked at number 16
“16, we have manifested it... Mikhail Lemmon. Let's let's just go ahead and make this happen.”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Makai Lemon
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 16
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 26
“'26, we're building the exciting whites. Dylan Thieneman is going to be their pick here.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Dillon Thieneman
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 26
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 10
“Lock and stone, Caleb Downs, number 10 to the Bengals.”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
K.C. Concepcion to be picked at number 24
“24, already drafted, Monroe Freeling, if you're the Browns. I think they go wide receiver here, and I'm going to go with Casey Concepcion here over Denzel Boston.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- K.C. Concepcion
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 24
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
Monroe Freeling to be picked at number 6
“With this pick, I'm gonna go Monroe Freeling from Georgia... The the Browns are gonna draft the the big tall guy at left tackle.”
Close · 57Scored 56.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Monroe Freeling
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 56.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 19
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 56.94
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksRueben BainTennessee TitansMar 2, 2026
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 4
“I think this one should be easy for the Titans. They should sprint up to the board and pick Ruben Bayne Junior.”
Close · 62Scored 62.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 62.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 62.09
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsMar 2, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“Second overall pick, I think this one's easy too. I'm gonna go Arvell Reese.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8
“This is a very interesting pick here with New Orleans. Give me Jeremiah Love.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksKanye SavicMar 2, 2026
Kanye Savic to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
“It's not about, like, if he goes first round anymore. It's about how high he goes in the first round... So I'm willing to bet on that in round one.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Kanye Savic
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksMansoor DelaneDallas CowboysMar 2, 2026
Mansoor Delane to be picked at number 12
“Twelve, I'm gonna go Mansoor Delaine. And I I think that the Cowboys love Delaine.”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Mansoor Delane
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb BanksMinnesota VikingsMar 2, 2026
Caleb Banks to be picked at number 18
“18, the Minnesota Vikings... I'm going to go with Caleb Banks here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Caleb Banks
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 22
“22, I think this is the furthest he's going to fall. I'm a little Kellogg Falk”
Close · 68Scored 67.71 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Keldric Faulk
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 67.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 31
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 67.71
- predicted pick:
- 22
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksC.J. AllenDallas CowboysMar 2, 2026
C.J. Allen to be picked at number 20
“Man, 20 Dallas... I I'm gonna go CJ Allen.”
Miss · 24Scored 23.94 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- C.J. Allen
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 23.94
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 53
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 23.94
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksCade McDonaldDenver BroncosMar 2, 2026
Cade McDonald to be picked at number 30
“30, this is a very interesting pick for the Broncos... So I'm gonna go Caden McDonald here, and I'm beefing up the run defense.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Cade McDonald
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; later signed with CLE
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
Olaivavega Ioane to be picked at number 14
“14... give me Vega Yoani... I don't think Yoani is gonna leave the, top 20 come April.”
Miss · 0Scored 0 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Vega Yoani
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- undrafted
- outcome:
- went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- undrafted
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0
- predicted pick:
- 14
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksJacob RodriguezMar 2, 2026
Jacob Rodriguez to be picked “top 50” (picks 1–50)
“Yeah. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't leave the top 50 like we talked about Malachi Lawrence.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.56 against a shuffle’s 50+39.56 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.56
- player:
- Jacob Rodriguez
- season:
- 2026
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 43
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- top 50 (picks 1–50)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.56
- Mock Draft PicksCole PaytonMar 2, 2026
Cole Payton to be picked “day two”
“So would not surprise me after this if he ends up in that day two mix as well.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksChase PizzantesMar 2, 2026
Chase Pizzantes to be picked “day two”
“So he's one of my guys on, like, day two. I don't think he gets into day one”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksMalachi LawrenceMar 2, 2026
Malachi Lawrence to be picked “legit round two potential”
“But watching him do this at the combine, like, we're talking about, like, legit round two potential”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksDennis SuttonMar 2, 2026
Dennis Sutton to be picked “day two”
“He has the ability to win with long arms, and that's something that I'm really intrigued by as just a day two.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksDillon ThienemanMar 2, 2026
Dillon Thieneman to be picked “round one”
“So I think he is talk he has performed himself into surefire, like, round one position.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Mock Draft PicksDeion BurksMar 2, 2026
Deion Burks to be picked “day two”
“Like, again, we're thinking, like, day two.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Ross JacksonScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 38Ross Jackson picked the Saints to beat the Raiders at home, projecting a 27-24 final score with the Raiders scoring 24 points.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Rogers made his own Week 2 calls, taking the Packers, Eagles (by at least 10), Panthers (by at least a field goal), Cowboys (by at least six), Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also noted Baltimore was his Super Bowl pick and said it wouldn't shock him if Jacksonville hosted the AFC Championship Game.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Houston TexansMiss · 24Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Rogers predicted the Bills would beat the Lions in their new stadium on Thursday night, winning by a touchdown.
- Mary Kay CabotTrade and Signing Calls · Za'Darius SmithMiss · 0Cabot reported that Za'Darius Smith is expected to sign with the Browns, possibly as early as Sunday, after working out for the team.
- Brandon CarneyTrade and Signing Calls · Austin EkelerMiss · 0Carney drafted a team of rookies he expects to make an immediate fantasy impact (headlined by Karnell Tate and Makai Lemon), predicted landing spots for the remaining big-name free agents, and gave way-too-early division winners, wild cards and award picks — Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, Eagles, Rams, Vikings and Saints as division champs with Joe Burrow as MVP.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Francis MauigoaHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · R Mason ThomasClose · 59In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Bucky BrooksMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 81In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Steve MenschMock Draft Picks · Caleb LomuClose · 62Making the even-numbered picks in the mock, he sent Arvell Reese to the Jets at No. 2, Spencer Fano to the Giants at 5, Jordan Tyson to the Saints at 8, a Tennessee cornerback to Miami at 11, Keldric Faulk to Baltimore at 14, Akheem Mesidor to Dallas at 20, Kenyon Sadiq to Philadelphia at 23, Caleb Banks to Buffalo at 26, Ty Simpson to the Rams at 29 and Chris Johnson to Seattle at 32, plus Caleb Lomu to Detroit at 17.