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Jordan Dajani· Sep 10, 2026

Dajani picks the Rams over the 49ers, Texans over Bills, Ravens over Colts, Bengals over Buccaneers, Vikings over Packers, Cowboys over Giants and Broncos over Chiefs in Week 1, with exact scores. He also predicts the Bills win the AFC East, the Cowboys win their division, and Caleb Downs wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.

“Caleb Downs is going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

10 checkable claims — 7 score predictions, 2 division winners and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

7 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 47.6 out of 100, against 45.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

Who this take is about

The games in this take

10 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Denver Broncos 17 — Chiefs 14

    “Prediction: Broncos 17, Chiefs 14”

    Miss · 7Scored 7.14a naive guess scored 51.93-89.58 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    10-31
    skill:
    -89.58
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    7.14
    baseline:
    51.93
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    21
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    0.81
    predicted margin:
    3

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  • Cincinnati Bengals 21 — Buccaneers 20

    “Prediction: Bengals 21, Buccaneers 20”

    Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 84.44+7.3 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    27-33
    skill:
    7.3
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    88.1
    baseline:
    84.44
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    -0.53
    predicted margin:
    1

    Think this is wrong?

  • Houston Texans 23 — Bills 21

    “Prediction: Texans 23, Bills 21”

    Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 36.83+12.06 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    36-31
    skill:
    12.06
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    42.86
    baseline:
    36.83
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    -0.53
    predicted margin:
    2

    Think this is wrong?

  • Minnesota Vikings 22 — Packers 16

    “Prediction: Vikings 22, Packers 16”

    Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 58.25+31.11 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    22-39
    skill:
    31.11
    they picked:
    MIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    73.81
    baseline:
    58.25
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    -0.53
    predicted margin:
    6

    Think this is wrong?

  • Dallas Cowboys 28 — Giants 23

    “Prediction: Cowboys 28, Giants 23”

    Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 79.68-73.65 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    20-28
    skill:
    -73.65
    they picked:
    DAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    42.86
    baseline:
    79.68
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    -0.53
    predicted margin:
    5

    Think this is wrong?

  • Baltimore Ravens 27 — Colts 23

    “Prediction : Ravens 27, Colts 23”

    Close · 67Scored 66.67a naive guess scored 5.87+121.59 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    41-23
    skill:
    121.59
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    66.67
    baseline:
    5.87
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    -0.53
    predicted margin:
    4

    Think this is wrong?

  • Los Angeles Rams 24 — 49ers 20

    “Prediction: Rams 24, 49ers 20”

    Miss · 12Scored 11.9a naive guess scored 0+23.81 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    27-7
    skill:
    23.81
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    11.9
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    20
    weeks left when called:
    18
    naive home margin:
    -8.5
    predicted margin:
    4

    Think this is wrong?

  • Caleb Downs to win Defensive Rookie of the Year

    “Caleb Downs is going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Dallas Cowboys to win the division

    “I even have them winning the division!”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Buffalo Bills to win the division

    “I love the Buffalo Bills and believe they will win the AFC East this year.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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What others said about the same people

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