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Connor Rogers#32 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 17, 2026

Rogers predicted the Bills would beat the Lions in their new stadium on Thursday night, winning by a touchdown.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100
Bills 41–31What happenedLions at Bills
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#32Connor Rogers’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Connor Rogers said

I think the Bills in their new stadium do it tonight and win by a touchdown.
Our reading: Buffalo Bills to beat Lions
Where it was said
Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)
The episode
Lions-Bills pick; The Heat is on Broncos & Rams
The original
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  1. SaidSep 17
  2. PlayedSep 17
  3. GradedSep 30

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Lions

    What happenedBills 41–31Lions at Bills
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 17): Bills by 5.5 · favorite pick, Bills about 2 in 3 (68%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    31-41
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
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