Ryan Reynolds· Sep 12, 2023
Reynolds ranks all 32 NFL teams in his Week 2 power rankings, with the 49ers first and the Cardinals last. Along the way he predicts the Saints can reach double-digit wins, that the Browns and Buccaneers could start 2-0, that the Chargers are positioned to start 3-1, that a Texans 0-5 start is possible, and that Carolina will struggle over its first six games.
“If Purdy continues to play like he did on opening day, the 49ers are the team to beat in the NFC.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Sep 9, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
5 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 season win totals and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 65.7 out of 100, against 86.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksCleveland BrownsSep 12, 2023
Cleveland Browns to beat Pittsburgh Steelers
“If Cleveland's defense plays this well in Pittsburgh on Monday night, the Browns could start 2-0.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 22-26
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- CLE
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Power RankingsSep 12, 2023
“NFL Week 2 Power Rankings — 1. San Francisco 49ers ... 32. Arizona Cardinals”
Hit · 83Scored 82.86a naive guess scored 70.88+23.25 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 23.25
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 82.86
- baseline:
- 70.88
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersSep 12, 2023
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Chicago Bears
“A similar outing from both units could lead to a 2-0 start with a home game vs. Chicago on deck.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 17-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2023
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Season Win TotalsNew Orleans SaintsSep 12, 2023
New Orleans Saints to finish with 10 wins
“Given their league-easiest schedule, the Saints can finish with double-digit wins if they finish more drives while playing effective defense.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+9.7 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NO
- naive:
- 7.75
- skill:
- 9.7
- what happened:
- 9
- season:
- 2023
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Season Win TotalsLos Angeles ChargersSep 12, 2023
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with ? wins
“Los Angeles is still well-positioned to start 3-1.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New Orleans SaintsClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
- Ryan LaVoyScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 17LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs.
- Jaron SporScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19The host predicted a comfortable Buccaneers win over Cleveland, 27-10, picked Jacksonville as an upset winner at Denver, said the Giants could win seven or eight games as a sneaky team, and expected Deshaun Watson and the Browns to part ways soon.
- David DroegemeierTrade and Signing Calls · Mekhi BectonHit · 100Drogemeier says the Chargers cutting Mekhi Becton is a foregone conclusion, freeing nearly $9 million in cap space, and only a matter of when.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.