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Ryan ReynoldsSep 12, 2023

Reynolds ranks all 32 NFL teams in their Week 2 power rankings, with the 49ers first and the Cardinals last. Along the way they predict the Saints can reach double-digit wins, that the Browns and Buccaneers could start 2-0, that the Chargers are positioned to start 3-1, that a Texans 0-5 start is possible, and that Carolina will struggle over its first six games.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

3 of 4calls landed3 hits · 1 miss · 1 too vague to check
65.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls
86.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4 of 5Settlednone still waiting · 1 too vague to check
0Waitingnot graded yet · 1 too vague to check

What Ryan Reynolds said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
If Purdy continues to play like he did on opening day, the 49ers are the team to beat in the NFC.
Ryan Reynolds, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
The 33rd Team
The piece
2023 NFL Week 2 Power Rankings: Cowboys Rise Into Top 5, Jets Tumble | The 33rd Team
The original
The copy as archived Sep 9, 2024
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

  1. SaidSep 12, 2023
  2. GradedAug 5–17, 2026
  1. 1Cleveland Browns to beat Pittsburgh Steelers“If Cleveland's defense plays this well in Pittsburgh on Monday night, the Browns could start 2-0.”
  2. 2Power Rankings“NFL Week 2 Power Rankings — 1. San Francisco 49ers ... 32. Arizona Cardinals”
  3. 3Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Chicago Bears“A similar outing from both units could lead to a 2-0 start with a home game vs. Chicago on deck.”
  4. 4New Orleans Saints to finish with 10 wins“Given their league-easiest schedule, the Saints can finish with double-digit wins if they finish more drives while playing effective defense.”
  5. 5Season Win Totals“Los Angeles is still well-positioned to start 3-1.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Cleveland Browns to beat Pittsburgh Steelers1Game Outcome Picks—0100−194
“NFL Week 2 Power Rankings — 1. San Francisco 49ers ... 32.…”2Power Rankings—82.8670.88+23.25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Chicago Bears3Game Outcome Picks—1001000
New Orleans Saints to finish with 10 wins4Season Win Totals98075+9.7
“Los Angeles is still well-positioned to start 3-1.”5Season Win Totals————
5 calls · 3 hits · 1 miss · 1 too vague to check65.786.5

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 season win totals and 1 power ranking — the 4 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 calls we can check have settled, averaging 65.7 out of 100, against 86.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksCleveland Browns

    Cleveland Browns to beat Pittsburgh Steelers

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill

    Closing line (Sep 18): Browns by 2.5 · favorite pick, Browns 57%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    PIT
    score:
    22-26
    skill:
    −194
    they picked:
    CLE
    season:
    2023
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PIT
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Power Rankings

    “NFL Week 2 Power Rankings — 1. San Francisco 49ers ... 32. Arizona Cardinals”

    VerdictHit
    82.86Hit · naive 70.88
    82.86this call70.88a naive guess11.98better than naive1.94difficulty+23.25skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    23.25
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2023
    accuracy:
    82.86
    baseline:
    70.88
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    32
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Chicago Bears

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 17): Buccaneers by 2.5 · favorite pick, Buccaneers 55%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    TB
    score:
    17-27
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2023
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    TB
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Season Win TotalsNew Orleans Saints

    New Orleans Saints to finish with 10 wins

    What happened9called 10
    80Hit · naive 75
    80this call75a naive guess5better than naive1.94difficulty+9.7skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NO
    naive:
    7.75
    skill:
    9.7
    what happened:
    9
    season:
    2023
    zero credit this far off:
    5
    accuracy:
    80
    baseline:
    75
    they said:
    10
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Season Win TotalsLos Angeles Chargers

    “Los Angeles is still well-positioned to start 3-1.”

    VerdictToo vague to check

    Too vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.

    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once

    65.7naive 86.5

Who this take is about

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