Newt Gingrich· Nov 5, 2024

Gingrich predicted Republican Senate pickups in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Arizona, and put Trump's Georgia margin at around five points.

“I think Bernie Mario may become the next Senator, just out of the underlying current that every year gets more Republican.”

said on air or in an interview · Newt's World · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 68 out of 100, against 19 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“We may pick up the Senate seat there based on the most recent Poland.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-az
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ruben Gallego
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kari Lake
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I think Bernie Mario may become the next Senator, just out of the underlying current that every year gets more Republican.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bernard F. Moreno
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Cha also means we'll probably pick up the Senate seat.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Dave McCormick
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“My sense was around five percent.”
Close · 72Scored 71.9a naive guess scored 75.8-3.9 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
-3.9
topic:
elections
what happened:
2.19
in their words:
around five percent
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
71.9
baseline:
75.8
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
5
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
2.19
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
-0.23
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.