John McLaughlinOct 9, 2026
McLaughlin said they believe Ken Paxton will still win the Texas Senate race despite Democratic spending and the national environment.
Said on air or in an interview · Newt's WorldHear the original
0Miss · out of 100
James Talarico wonWhat happenedcalled Ken Paxton
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty
What John McLaughlin said
I truly believe Paxton will still win Texas
- Where it was said
- Newt's World
- The episode
- Episode 1050: The Midterms, 27 Days Out — McLaughlin and Sosnik on Who Will Control Congress
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 9
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Paxton to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
What happenedJames Talarico woncalled Ken Paxton0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- James Talarico
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ken Paxton
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.