Lakshya Jain· Nov 4, 2024

Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races.

“We give her a 53% chance of winning , and project her to win 270 electoral votes”

published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →

43 checkable claims — 35 race winners, 4 seat counts, 2 chamber control and 2 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 43 have settled, averaging 75.4 out of 100, against 45.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

43 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 4, 2024
“project her to win 270 electoral votes”
Close · 56Scored 56a naive guess scored 57-1 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
-1
topic:
elections
what happened:
226
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
56
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
270
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
no
the naive guess:
half the electoral college
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
86
their party:
Democratic
the naive guess said:
269
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“our model views this race as a tossup, with Kamala Harris as a nominal favorite (making her our pick for the presidency). We give her a 53% chance of winning”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a 53% chance of winning
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Robert P. Casey Jr.
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tammy Baldwin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tammy Baldwin
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Elissa Slotkin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Elissa Slotkin
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 4, 2024
“given that we think Trump wins Ohio by 8 again”
Close · 68Scored 67.9a naive guess scored 68.2-0.3 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
-0.3
topic:
elections
what happened:
11.21
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
67.9
baseline:
68.2
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
8
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
11.21
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
8.03
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 4, 2024
“Our final forecast gives Republicans a 73% chance to take the Senate”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
in their words:
a 73% chance to take the Senate
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2024
“with a 52 Republican, 48 Democratic Senate if we eliminate toss ups”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 20+60 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
53
skill:
60
topic:
elections
what happened:
53
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
80
baseline:
20
they said:
52
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
49
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
49
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2024
“with a 52 Republican, 48 Democratic Senate if we eliminate toss ups”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 20+60 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Democratic
seats after:
47
skill:
60
topic:
elections
what happened:
47
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
80
baseline:
20
they said:
48
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
51
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
51
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Republicans will flip West Virginia”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Rick Scott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rick Scott
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“our model sees Fischer as the favorite ... Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-ne
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Leans Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Deb Fischer
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Deb Fischer
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Our model has Moreno as the slightest of favorites, with a 56% chance to win”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a 56% chance to win
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bernard F. Moreno
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Our model sees this race as Safe Democratic.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-md
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Safe Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Angela Alsobrooks
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Maryland
decided in the:
general
they said:
Angela Alsobrooks
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ruben Gallego
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ruben Gallego
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Leans Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jacky S. Rosen
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jacky S. Rosen
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 4, 2024
“Our final forecast gives Democrats a 53% chance of retaking the House”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
in their words:
a 53% chance of retaking the House
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2024
“Democrats end up with a razor-thin 219–216 majority”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 90-10 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Democratic
seats after:
215
skill:
-10
topic:
elections
what happened:
215
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
80
baseline:
90
they said:
219
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2024
“Democrats end up with a razor-thin 219–216 majority”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 90-10 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
-10
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
80
baseline:
90
they said:
216
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+50 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nc-06
election year:
2024
skill:
50
topic:
elections
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Addison McDowell
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in North Carolina's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Addison McDowell
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+50 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-al-02
election year:
2024
skill:
50
topic:
elections
in their words:
strongly favored
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Shomari Figures
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Alabama's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Shomari Figures
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“The seat is currently rated Likely Democratic , with Democrat Laura Gillen expected to notch a comfortable victory on election night.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ny-04
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Laura Gillen
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 4
decided in the:
general
they said:
Laura Gillen
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ny-19
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Josh Riley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 19
decided in the:
general
they said:
Josh Riley
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Only one Democratic incumbent is at a slight disadvantage (despite a titanic fundraising edge): Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03).”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-wa-03
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
slight disadvantage for the Democratic incumbent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Washington's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joe Kent
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-ca-22
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
David Valadao
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 22
decided in the:
general
they said:
Rudy Salas
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs. ... In NY-22 , where our model gives Democrats better chances at winning”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ny-22
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
John Mannion
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 22
decided in the:
general
they said:
John Mannion
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nc-14
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Tim Moore
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in North Carolina's district 14
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Moore
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-nc-13
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Brad Knott
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in North Carolina's district 13
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brad Knott
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“We expect Democrat Tony Vargas to be carried over the line.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-house-ne-02
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Don Bacon
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tony Vargas
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ca-13
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Adam Gray
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 13
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Gray
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ca-27
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
George Whitesides
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in California's district 27
decided in the:
general
they said:
George Whitesides
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-or-05
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Janelle Bynum
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Oregon's district 5
decided in the:
general
they said:
Janelle Bynum
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Republican Tom Barrett is favored to flip MI-07”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-mi-07
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Tom Barrett
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tom Barrett
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“where Republican John James is favored to win a rematch against Democrat Carl Marlinga”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-mi-10
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
John James
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Michigan's district 10
decided in the:
general
they said:
John James
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“North Carolina, is also home to a Safe Democratic gubernatorial election”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-governor-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Safe Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-governor
who won:
Josh Stein
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Josh Stein
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“if we had to pick, we would go with Tilt Republican here”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-governor-nh
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Tilt Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-governor
who won:
Kelly Ayotte
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kelly Ayotte
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“a note on Indiana, which remains Likely Republican in our ratings ... partisanship should carry Braun over the top”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-governor-in
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Likely Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-governor
who won:
Mike Braun
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 Indiana gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Braun
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-la-06
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
strongly favored
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Cleo Fields
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Louisiana's district 6
decided in the:
general
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.