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Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
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Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06
The seat is currently rated Likely Democratic , with Democrat Laura Gillen expected to notch a comfortable victory on election night.
Our final forecast gives Democrats a 53% chance of retaking the House
Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs. ... In NY-22 , where our model gives Democrats better chances at winning
We expect Democrat Tony Vargas to be carried over the line.
In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)
In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)
The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).
a note on Indiana, which remains Likely Republican in our ratings ... partisanship should carry Braun over the top
the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory
if we had to pick, we would go with Tilt Republican here
North Carolina, is also home to a Safe Democratic gubernatorial election
where Republican John James is favored to win a rematch against Democrat Carl Marlinga
Republican Tom Barrett is favored to flip MI-07
The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).
In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)
Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic
Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic
our forecast remains that the presidency is a pure tossup, with Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win and Donald Trump at a 47% chance to win. Harris is a nominal favorite, and so if you forced us to make a pick for the presidency, we'd have to go with her.
Harris is a nominal favorite, and so if you forced us to make a pick for the presidency, we'd have to go with her.
Still, this poll alone moves Iowa to Leans Republican in our forecast, with Trump being a 76% favorite to keep the state in his column
this poll alone moves Iowa to Leans Republican in our forecast, with Trump being a 76% favorite to keep the state in his column
Split Ticket has the state rated as Leans Republican , a flip from 2020
Split Ticket currently rates the state Likely Republican in our model.
becoming the third of the swing states to enter the Leans Republican column this cycle